GS Kaplan Back to School Checklist 3 Sep 2026

GS Kaplan - Back to School Checklist 3 Sep 2026 Matthew Kaplan · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, Global Banking & Markets, FICC & Equities Wed 3 Sep 2026, 4:15pm ET

With the unofficial end of Summer ahead, plenty to digest from the last month of trading. While US equity indices have largely remained in a holding pattern over the last ~3 weeks, the moves under the hood have been anything but muted. On our desk we have seen an uptick in demand for the 'broadening out' trade following July's Momentum meltdown. We continue to see investor demand in pockets of cyclicals (particularly in financials), as well as renewed optimism around 'AI-proof' Software (cybersecurity following blowout OKTA & CRWD numbers and AI-adopters in the sector like SNOW). Focus remains on what could drive the next leg of the AI trade as we enter a busy season for conferences (GS Communacopia kicks off next week) and an expected uptick in equity issuance. Full August recap here.

Zooming out, the market has been forced to digest the possibility of Fed hikes into September as FOMC rhetoric has skewed hawkish post Jackson Hole. Real assets have caught a bid as part of an ongoing debasement trade, with Bitcoin +30% & Gold +5.5% over the last month.

Looking ahead, September seasonality tends to be poor (-1.34% avg performance over the last 10 years // worst month for stocks over that period). CPI on 9/11 and the subsequent FOMC decision on 9/16 will be key tests for the market. Expect continued rotation and broadening out on a subsector basis, while Hedge Funds re-grossing (nets + grosses, as well as L/S ratios remain near 1-year lows) could provide the next leg higher for the index.

A few things we're focused on and key catalysts for September:

Liquidity: S&P top of book has remained fairly strong for August, likely due to the reset lower in vol

Buybacks: Buyback volumes are running +1.3x vs 2025 YTD ADTV, with recent flow heaviest in Tech, Financials, and Health Care sectors. Against the macro backdrop of typical late August thin volumes, even a moderated corporate bid is thought to provide a cushion to broader markets. Looking ahead, we estimate the Q3 blackout window will begin ~9/15, when roughly ~40% of the S&P 500 is estimated to enter its blackout window