S&T SELL

GS Luey EU Index Vol Commentary 4 Sep 2026

Sep 7, 202610 pages页

From the report报告摘录NFP Beat & Fed Hike Odds: NFP beat consensus by 4 SD, lifting September Fed hike odds from 50% to 62%, signaling hawkish policy shift amid rising bond yields.

Inside the report报告内文 Verbatim from the original PDF — first pages原版 PDF 开篇原文 · 逐字摘录

GS Luey - EU Index Vol Commentary 4 Sep 2026 Jonathan Luey · Goldman Sachs · EU Index Vol / FICC & Equities Mon 7 Sep 2026, 12:23am ET

EU spots relatively unch on Friday, finishing the week lower (SXXP -0.81%) amid several competing forces. In the absence of strong earnings (Dell/Snowflake/Broadcom) or dovish fed speak (Waller) it feels like macro headwinds of climbing oil/refined products (CO1 +7.80%, XBA +5.39%) and rising global bond yields are driving the tape. Global aggregate sovereign debt yields across all maturities hit new cycle highs- levels not seen since 2007:

Though not as pivotal as CPI next week for Fed decision making, NFP printed 4 SD above than consensus estimates, higher than all surveyed economists with positive revisions which saw Sep hike odds move from 50 to 62%:

CPI is big next week with plenty of extra variance in FX vol surfaces. The FOMC decision itself is already garnering the most variance for such an event I can remember:

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