GS Materials August 13....ANTO trim, RWE inline , EON ontrack, RIO power deal, Gold push/fade, Steel's summer of content.

GS Materials - August 13....ANTO trim, RWE inline , EON ontrack, RIO power deal, Gold push/fade, Steel's summer of content. DXY 100.00 CNH 6.74 10YR 4.67 Gold 4376 Copper 14,065 Oil 88.79

A few results to start, all the focus yday was the Gold move, China we saw ahead of yesterday pretty tepid (more interest to buy Silver), noting the selling into the end of the session today, profit taking. West is underweight, feels like more duration, more below. China - PBoC announced to conduct overnight reverse repo on Aug 14, 17-19 with amount capped at RMB600bn each day. This is the first time PBoC uses overnight reverse repo at mid-month, in addition to month end. ...Copper made a record high on CMX last night, 6.71/lb, not much new to add my side, i used the word scarcity yday, i see this article pointed out, uses same word, The World Is Hoarding Copper at Rapid Pace (nothign new in the article, just reading it from a different pen)...see a few bits below, in particular the bar for ANTO and steel comment spretty interesting.

ANTO - inline (no's been coming down), debt higher, modest cut to prodn guide (35kt midpoint), starts -1-2% : 1H EBITDA $2.84bn (VA cons 2.82bn, numbers had been coming down), EPS 85.9 (cons 75.2c), DPS 30.1 (Cons 28c) , ND 3.97bn (cons 3.16bn)....Cut FY prodn guidance to 625-655kt (GS 649kt), costs have not been changed (competitiveness programme target 7c/lb improvement), capex no change (running behind on the spend).... I was a little cautious, GIR sitting below the range, no shift in cost/capex can be seen as positive...I was running small short into today, the bar is getting higher, end of last year when they were revising lower and the mkt was shrugging it off as they re-rated Cu multiples the mkt offerrring was lower, FM was still wrestling Panama, FCX was in the tangle at Grasberg, IVN was deep underwater, GLEN was a show me stroy, AAL had huge deal risk. Today the ask of ANTO is higher and the need to deliver is greater, hence .I think starts small down with Copper, -1-2%.

source GIR, past perfromance not indicatiive of future returns.

RWE - inline - pre-released (end July) , nothing new at first pass, ND inline, nothing new on Amprion stake increase (left field ask), in the slider we see that capacity payments in Germany, Netherlands, are not included in the 2031 guidance. They also mention two DC deals nearing completion, you can say this is new, we prefer to see the deal announced to price it into the equity...net net, inline print, no new information, could fade a little to start.....Link to GIR first take

Gold - Post CPI…. I was just watching gold…good chart from marquee on CMX OI / SHFE Oi and who's chasing. Has been the number one ask today/the last week on the desk. Lots of anecdotal chat of allocators pushing for a re-weight and using the pullback to do that. The px action post CPI is encouraging (inline print, mkt wants to buy), the push towards the 200day ($4500), Asian OI is up (note they selling it later in day today), CTA's have been healthy buyers (desk feels CTA short cover is complete). The consistency in the De-escalation trade, ie the "when" not the "if", is to sell Oil and buy Gold...note this South Korea’s central bank bought gold-related assets for the first time in 13 years