GS McGeoch GOLD path higher EGO Copper FMG 21 Aug 2026

GS McGeoch - GOLD path higher EGO your equity pick Copper mispriced and FMGs game of snakes and ladders 21 Aug 2026 McGeoch · Goldman Sachs · Vice President, FICC & Equities Fri 21 Aug 2026, 3:01 AM ET

Have been on the move this week, so grabbing a few bits top of mind as I wrestled a back of the buss red eye headache yesterday… Overnight precious keeps the interest intact; trading observes that Chinese buying renewed — they had been taking profits the last few sessions, but today it’s all one way. They (like us on the desk in London) think Silver is more interesting, less resistance around these levels, just less equity expressions. Iron ore will only go sideways at best: you have BHP asserting that strikes having no impact; more importantly, with steel margins compressed and met coal rallying, it’s hard for iron ore to go up. This is worth packing into the back of your head — Indonesia, China to Explore Greater Commodity Market Access: “Will cooperate on advanced technologies and artificial intelligence, including the joint development of communications satellites.” Call me what you will, but I suggest below on Copper the mkt has mispriced the Korea/GLEN deal and I also continue to believe that the onshore US copper stockpiles are a counter-weight to the US/China Rare Earth friction. Ie tariff will come on, stock will draw from LME, Copper will “scarcity price” and if you’re not there, as we like to say, “shut the gate, the horse has bolted.”

Copper — I feel some of the frustration in the way it’s traded this week in conversations. Came in Monday with a full head of steam, stock draws have persisted and miners continue to struggle with weather anomalies. I also feel very, very strongly that the GLEN with Korea’s Eximbank (cash for conc) has been utterly overlooked/mispriced by the market. When an official of the lending bank calls it a “preemptive move” from an “economic-security” perspective, you kinda gotta stop for a moment and think. Trading desk watching deliveries, tom/next; curve remains backwardated (metal getting re-warranted). It’s really about precious taking all the oxygen and subsequently the ask to me is do we get some pivot from the Gold move into Copper. Starting point is Gold had so much focus on the 200-day. Remember it got real ugly when it broke down through it. I also saw a survey saying “16% of managers say Gold undervalued, the most ‘bullish’ reading since March 2023.” I don’t necessarily think you see a scaled-up pivot; I’m more about risk allocation to the space. My thinking has more recently been the below on Gold, and Copper has to compete for the upside. Equally the moves on Canadian tariffs could breed some caution (I think this is apples and oranges and would disregard). I like Copper; you can pair it with Ali.

Gold — the obvious big one was the 200-day at $4500; the action was fast with the Wednesday China night-session move, positionally a top-5 of the last 3 years. My take has been you’re adding as we go up. The $4k trade was a 4/10, then as the 100-day came out it likely moved toward 6/10 and now the 200-day takes you >8/10. It’s all about the belly v the wings. To many, if you can get a regime change (debasement etc) and specs back in, then the 20% you collect from $4500 to $5k is the trade you lean into. Sure it can

chop before it restarts the move again, however it’s hard to see 20% in Oil, Copper, Steel, Ali in the short term. I did notice a peer picked up coverage of EGO.US yesterday at Buy (c.20% upside). Still a name discussed a few times on the desk yesterday — the move has lagged, for example AEM.US last 5 days (I picked that name as it’s the highest-multiple peer and should really lag on a commodity move like this). Given the catalyst-heavy nature it’s easy to see why eyes hold here on EGO, with a site trip in Sept. I would say take a look at the register on BBG, some fairly impressive adds. As for catalysts, taking a very quick pass you have 5 boxes to tick into year-end that all have considerable delta to share price to me: Power connection established (Late Aug/Sept), Skouries first concentrate (Q3), McIlvenna Bay commercial prodn (Q3), Skouries commercial prodn (Q4), McIlvenna…