GS McGeoch GS Materials Oct 14...GLEN's Aussie win, RIO inline (portfolio unpack...hmmm), AAL diamonds, Orsted 's US headache, Copper into LME as Escondida drags

GS McGeoch - GS Materials Oct 14...GLEN's Aussie win, RIO inline (portfolio unpack...hmmm), AAL diamonds, Orsted 's US headache, Copper into LME as Escondida drags 14 Oct 2026 James McGeoch · Goldman Sachs · Materials Specialist Sales 14 Oct 2026

DXY 102.12 CNH 6.69 10YR 5.19 Gold 4,151 Copper 14,643 Oil 105.96 All fairly calm on the surface my sde (Korea playing ball), saw HK move higher with

DXY 102.12 CNH 6.69 10YR 5.19 Gold 4,151 Copper 14,643 Oil 105.96

All fairly calm on the surface my sde (Korea playing ball), saw HK move higher with metals underperform. Clear ask on GLEN overnight (see below), went off pretty well I think. Also the other big focus yesterday was on RIO and the ability to deliver, which still requires time. Much time still spent on Copper, trades so well, see below the thread of discussion yesterday , the biggest number was Escondida today looks like its down >15% for Sept y/y (back up m/m from 76kt in August). LME week closing in, see some smelter offers for conc at astonishing discounts (-$330) a follow on around this tightness in Chile supply story here. ...Three other quick ones to start, Iron Ore a good read if you get 5mins today , note China shipments remain elevated at c.110mt for Sept (element of pre goldne week re-stock here).......on the AAL.LN portfolio story and Diamonds, the tape suggesting Botswana getting close to agreeing a forward which will then allow the rest of the package to fall into place. Needless to say a completion here will be well received for AAL ahead of year end . ....This one on Gold and RRL.AU , close to my hear as i grew up in Orange, the way it has unfolded has been nothing short of astonishing, RRL.AU closed small up rel to peers on the news.

GLEN – kicked off overnight – closed 11.23 (+1.5% to LN), traded a short US$100m on main board (GLEN LN trades >$150m). Long only demand out of Australia, domestic mandates. The only selling we saw was H’s, zero long only stock transferred was sold (basis our observation). Small premium we expect to compress in region of 1%, so with coal fine, copper small up, marketing still winning and GLEN remains the preferred long…

RIO – Q3 last night (traded on ASX -0.3% v BHP -0.9%) – Prodn and cost guidance unchanged. Iron ore inline, nothing on CMRG (as expected), Copper -2% v cons, bigger dig here: Bingham base effect and cons hadn’t adjusted for rebuild of concentrator, OT performed very well (+17% v cons and offset Bingham), Escondida a look for me -5% v cons, I see Sept back to 100kt, which is -15.6% y/y, is CHILE is still bad in Sept, copper supply remains impaired…. Asset sales/Capital release – “entered into arrangements” to realise $2bn of the YE $5bn target (total target $5-10bn). The buckets to me look pretty light, the process is taking time, the standout consideration is a “non-binding lithium sales contract with a pre-payment”, like a streaming deal without the balance sheet ask…. For choice the hurdle today was

high, active positions leaning short with CMRG friction present in the forward and a growing need to deliver on portfolio. Expect stock to start small down, -1% rel.

AkerBP - +1%. Production 382kboepd, 2% miss vs VA cons (largely Johan Sverdrup) although should be relatively well understood post Equinor. Big overlift in the quarter, vols sold 396kboepd. Oil realisations a bit better than us but again should be well understood post EQNR/VAR.

Orsted - (from Pete) - starts -3-5%. US admin goes after offshore wind again. BBG reporting that the DoJ has asked a Federal court to remand the Interior Dept;s approval for Revolution Wind as they look to re- evaluate compliance.. Comes after a period of rel quiet from admin, and even buying back leases, so it's a surprise. Risk is not just Revolution wind, which is almost fully complete, but also Sunrise, which has a further 12m to go. Get rid of both projects and it's probably -15/20%, so think -3/5% is reasonable today

FXPO – capital raise completed in Sept, $100m, has an 18month runway of sorts. ...not really sure anyone watching this name but just in case - Ferrexpo 9M Pellet Production 2.04M Tons Vs. 2.81M Y/y

Copper - I penned a few thoughts yday…..(AAL/TECK/ANTO/GLEN) - LME…