GS McGeoch Materials Rising Tides Coppers LME ATH China buying overnight GLEN 8 Sep 2026

GS McGeoch - Materials Rising Tides Coppers LME ATH China buying overnight GLEN 8 Sep 2026 James McGeoch · Goldman Sachs · Materials / Equity Sales Tue 8 Sep 2026, 2:59am ET

*DXY 98.83 CNH 6.71 10YR 4.79 Gold 4398 Copper 14,554 Oil 98.22 *

A few things below I was looking at yesterday and a few more from overnight. The two tier economy amplified is the *ASX* – Banks sucking the wind that policy mistakes can suck, miners ok, but def soft v the Asian peers, more a banks for sale than materials to buy in todays session, .….*Copper *rallied in London then the US caught up overnight, chart def worth a peek, def doesn’t feel like the next leg is lower, see much more below, no smoking gun, just a hill full of soldiers who have been camped there all year!….*Asian desk* still pretty quiet in Copper, would note that positioning is building nicely as China breaks above the RMB110k level, our view on trading was $14,550 was a clear level to see a melt up and its doing that in Asia and London, US still has a small gap to the intraday highs.On my commute I didn’t get more bearish listening to Jeff on Hard Assets …cannnot not look at *Ferrous* – we know that freight is the biggest driver, however along with that *Iron Ore* and *Coking coal *outpace the move in *Rebar* on onshore. Margins compressed, squatting on the lows, maintain that *“anti-involution”* is what I need to see next. Not new news but note *RIO *and CMRG friction, indication mills should hold off buying Pilbara Blend link…. *Broadly in commodities* – its everywhere you look – *Copper, Ali, Nickel, Zinc, Iron Ore, Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Gas, Oil, *even *Gold, Silver, Plats*. The reason I say this is to say, think about where you have some edge, dig in a little and lean in. El Nino, Russia/Ukraine, SoH, Tariffs, (US/China/Canada), Project Vault etc . . *Remember the shape of 2026*…Jan Feb was 0 to 100 in 3 seconds. March was the wall at that speed, April into Mif May was a hope SoH commods can work hope trade, Mid May as paper in the Tech space hit peak reality bit, sucked wind and by end of July, July in particular investors hurt. It was scorched earth, gold threatening a break to $3600, No one would hold Copper for Tariff left tail (ala 2025), Ali was vomiting length as China/Indo were apparently delivering a tsunami of supply. The majority missed August, summer lull, licking wounds, needed a break, US/Canada friction, Trump/Xi in Sept etc. Here we are…. CPI this Friday, FOMC next week and the mkt clearly showing what it wants to do to commods… Lastly in *Oil -* Commods research nudging their *oil prices higher by $5 to $85 Dec 26* Brent / $80 2027 Brent reflecting a longer period of mideast shipping disruptions. They think overall inventories are relatively manageable, saw the deficit around 1mbpd over 3Q, and expect Chinese buying to be price sensitive Link to GIR. Talking to Pete in Trading he suggest *"Expect energy equities to be bid today as oil reacts to the Houthi threats; I would not be chasing given clearly increasing intensity to diplomacy. We have seen LO buying in REP and SHEL recently (coincidentally my 2 preferred) - I expect them to hold up better than EQNR/TTE on a pull back"..... *You see a few headlines on *GLEN *selling Bauxite project to *RIO *in QLD (i cannot see a price at this stage), all expected to happen as an extension of the Weipa complex, interesting to note *GLEN* has an interest in Brazils MRN (bauxite mine) where RIO has an interest. Bauxite outside Guinea is more

valuable that it was. The tail will not wag the dog, walk on..... All just a case of miners working together for the greater good.

* CPI – on to the next one… GS (MoM), August (GS +0.39%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%) link...also on **ECB:* rate decision on Thursday; we expect a 25bps hike (fully priced); focus will be on the updated staff projections and Lagarde’s comments on the policy outlook; we think that Sep is the last hike of this tightening cycle. Link

I have said buy *GSXGCOPP*, the single stock we continue to like on the desk is* GLENCORE. link… *

*Trade idea from Friday… GLEN upside into LME week (October 21)*

All the legs of* GLEN* working (references here), zinc making…