GS McGeoch Materials Sept 9 Navel gazing 9 Sep 2026

GS McGeoch - Materials Sept 9 Navel gazing 9 Sep 2026 James McGeoch · Goldman Sachs · Materials Sales Wed 9 Sep 2026, 3:09am ET

DXY 98.7 CNH 6.70 10YR 4.79 Gold 4400 Copper 14,690 Oil 99.55

A few bits below. noting China CPI/PPI a touch hot and Gold holding this $400 level, justt rallied $60 on my commute and of note Zinc on LME just jumped up (no news we see). Of note franchise not particularly active on the move up in Copper yesterday (vol was however bid, Nov ATM is at 20v from 18v) , clear technical break, but it felt like we marked higher and everyone just sat staring at it. There is some scar tissue from May 2024 and summer 2025 however I think this is where all eyes remain, some of the equity moves standout, IVN.CN had more asks than I can remember (update below), FCX.US also for the conviction of the move past that $70 level (CEO will be heavily engaged at conference week), in London ANTO.LN for a catch up, just people staring at charts, we know the bottom up is less compelling near term, however this less a micro market…. Iron Ore – do the math, look at the move in freight and ask yourself are these guys making more money or less? BHP remains in the headlines on Port Hedland, I know the unions want more, BHP making offers, output has not to this point been impacted, latest offer rejected link. …Some bits on positioning below. I maintain the view that eyes are not yet on the space, Oil volatility, Tech continues to consume all the oxygen, and rates, has debasement and other trades a little further back in the mind. That said the move yday was akin to mid August, came seemingly from nowhere and created a life of its own. Its not FOMO yet…..On Critical minerasl i kind of read these headlines without any change in my heart rate, EU funding mobilisation "The EU said in response to a query from Reuters that it has put in place a framework to mobilise €1.7 bn in financing ⁠for strategic projects since Dec and was fully aware of challenging market conditions.", note below they are challenging the MMG purchase of AAL nickel assets "in Brazil".

CPI this Friday – GS expect a 0.23% increase in August core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.40% (vs. +2.4% consensus). We expect a 0.39% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.4% consensus), reflecting higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a similar 0.22% increase in core PCE in August. Link toGIR

Copper – remember it’s a physical story, Gold is a financial one. Market dialing into the reports they are seeing on “X” etc on zero mine supply growth. Not new news, its just a case of “eyes on”. Re TC’s we know they have gone >$200 negative, heard yday trader deals in the regions -$270. Bid is strong – strategic accumulation, sulfuric acid offset and free metal carry. Smelter utilisation trending to the low 70’s %, maintenance pull forward. I am watching what happens with benchmarks into year end, ANTO typically set it around Nov. LME week guaranteed to be spicey in the absence of a Whitehouse update on Tariff. …… Liked this chart in the tweet end of last week at moneyofmines

Followed up by this one from GIR

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Past performance is not indicative of future results.