GS Novak GS U.S. Industrials & Materials CPI HVAC changes pickup analysis

GS Novak - GS U.S. Industrials & Materials | CPI | HVAC changes | pickup analysis 14 Oct 2026 Ryan Novak · Goldman Sachs · Sales & Trading 14 Oct 2026

Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities GS SECTOR SPECIALISTS: U.S. Industrials & Materials All references to “we/us/our” refer to the views and observations

Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities

GS SECTOR SPECIALISTS: U.S. Industrials & Materials

All references to “we/us/our” refer to the views and observations of the desk.

Good morning – halfway there. Coming in to see US S&P futures up modestly led by technology shares after ASML boosted its outlook and the company is searching for more ways to products chip-making machines to meet demand. Overseas markets mixed with KOSPI unable to get a bid down 44bps, Japan flat and Europe broadly stronger with France leading so far up 70bps. In commodities, crude bid up 100bps with Brent $106 and WTI $95 after a flare-up in Middle East attacks. IEA warns that diesel will remain constrained well into 2027. 10-year continues its modest grind lower 5.19% last, dollar steady DXY $102 and Bitcoin down a touch to $83k. Watching CPI later this AM – full preview below.

1. Global industrial specialist Q3 preview … Jeremy Elster (Europe), Ron Port (Asia) and myself will host a zoom Thursday 10/15 at 7am ET to discuss Q3 earnings across the globe.

2. Autos & industrial tech – will host Mark Delaney Friday 10/16 at 10am ET for a view on his coverage heading into earnings from TSLA to VRT to FLEX.

3. Aerospace and defense – Wednesday 10/21 group lunch with Noah Poponak to go through his coverage before the names start reporting.

Bogeys: will start to gather – please reach out to compare notes. Initially folks asking about PCAR TP&O gross margins, NVT orders, MMM organic growth, EMR ROK JCI WWD guides.

Bloomberg as of 10/14/26. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

China data: China's headline CPI inflation edged up to +0.9% yoy in September from +0.8% yoy in August, mainly on higher energy and transportation services prices. Headline PPI inflation rose to +5.0% yoy in September from +3.8% yoy in August, mainly due to higher prices for energy goods and chemicals. Incorporating the September CPI/PPI print, as well as our commodity strategy team's latest oil price forecasts, we are revising up our 2026/27 full-year PPI inflation forecasts to 2.8%/0.3% (vs. 2.0%/0.0%

previously). Under the revised path, year-over-year PPI inflation is likely to turn negative as early as Q2 next year, due to a high base this year. We also revise down our 2026/27 full-year CPI inflation forecasts to 0.8%/0.6% (vs. 1.0%/1.0% previously), driven by weak domestic demand and our expectations of fading boost from energy prices in 2027.

China's trade growth accelerated in September and came in significantly above consensus expectations (exports: +36.3% yoy, imports: +31.0% yoy). The acceleration in headline trade growth is consistent with the strong container shipping volume during the month. By region and in sequential terms, Chinese exports rose sequentially across major trading partners. Imports from major trading partners also rose sequentially, except for the US. By product, export value rose broadly from August to September, with apparel/footwear/suitcase products rising the most. Imports by products also rose broadly in September, led by energy products (mostly natural gas). Overall, the trade surplus widened to US$133.5bn (NSA) in September from US$119.1bn in August, marking the largest monthly surplus on record.

Watching CPI this morning: CPI GS preview: We expect a 0.24% increase in September core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.46% (vs. +2.5% consensus). We expect a 0.59% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.6% consensus), reflecting higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a slightly smaller 0.20% increase in core PCE in September. We highlight three key component-level trends we expect to see in the report. First, we expect a pickup in autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.2% increase in new car prices, and a 0.2% increase in the auto insurance category. Second, we forecast benign readings for…