GS Novak US Industrials Materials events corn HEI 25 Aug 2026

GS Novak - US Industrials Materials events corn HEI 25 Aug 2026 Ryan Novak · Goldman Sachs · US Industrials & Materials Tue 25 Aug 2026, 6:25am ET

Good morning – US S&P futures up 30bps this morning led by technology shares. Overseas markets more green than red – SHPROP leading up 137bps, Thailand lagging down 31bps. Europe led by the Stockholm market up 114bps, Germany not far behind up 73bps with better data. Germany IFO came in better 88.8 vs. 87.2 survey and 86.6 prior. Watching new home sales and US consumer confidence later this morning. Potential headlines coming today around Canada after some industries hit with 50% tariffs in recent days. In commodities, crude lower to start off almost 300bps with WTI $82.50, Brent $89.50, European gas lower in tandem. Yields off of highs with 10-year 4.67%, dollar flat DXY $99 and Bitcoin up again approaching $80k at $79.2k. Fed’s Barkin speaks today.

Corn chart worth flagging as shares of agricultural names continue to move higher – temporary move or more structural – futures say above $5 by September:

GS events: 1. I will be in CT 9/1 meeting with investors – let me know if you would like to get together. 2. Putting together pre-conference idea zooms the next two weeks – we’ll break it down by A&D, multis, autos, transports/airlines – let me know what you would like to join. 3. In September/October we’ll have

some very sought after events with senior bankers across GS – offer a unique perspective on corporate thinking – reach out to learn more.

Privo on risk: It has felt challenging because people are still long the obvious semi trades and they simply haven’t worked. The other interesting feature is that US cyclicals have had a pretty serious relative pullback, broadly coincident with the rise in oil. Call it a stagflationary impulse from the highs. The cleanest resolution is simply lower oil. On AI, I think the debate will ebb and flow, but ultimately there is just a huge amount of vested interest in continuing to spend and it remains difficult to see the numbers coming down meaningfully anytime soon. Multiples will compress episodically and then get chased back up as estimates roll forward. The sooner the market starts properly looking at FY27/FY28 (see below), the easier the valuation justification becomes. Last week saw another wave of tech selling while gross rose as people added back hedges. Maybe this week is still a little early for a full re-risk into September, but there are enough catalysts to support the tape. Couple of tech conferences start today, NVDA Wednesday is the obvious clearing event tomorrow, PCE tomorrow probably keeps the Fed on hold, and Friday’s Warsh speech could be anything….but most likely it is nothing.

Muted on the micro front: AMRZ appoints Sam Poletti as CFO with prior Baris Oran stepping down for personal reasons. AXON insider selling, DE UAW members reject contract extension – will bargain in 2027. PSN receives $750mm award – are these starting to add up. TSLA to debut new semi factory in Nevada in September. Watching auto parts retailers on mixed checks (away) – sales in line with oil inflation helping offset muted units, distributor margins under incremental pressure.

HEI reports tonight after the close around 4:15pm with the call at 9am tomorrow. 7% implied move with the stock squeezing 12% last print and green 5 of the last 6 reports. Short interest is elevated with nearly 3mm shares short, 6 days to cover and 7% of the float shorted. Saw hedge funds add to length in the second quarter while mutual funds were better for sale. Valuation is always a sticking point here but on an absolute basis has flatlined in the last five years while the rest of the market and aerospace aftermarket in particular has rerated. Feels like another squeezy set up - earnings down almost 10% sequentially looks like a low bar. Welcome your views and where you are focused here.