GS Pasquariello markets macro two charts that stuck out from the weekend reading 24 Aug 2026

GS Pasquariello - markets macro two charts that stuck out from the weekend reading 24 Aug 2026 Pasquariello · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Mon 24 Aug 2026, 3:38pm ET

1. I stumbled upon this when flipping through the weekly deck from US Portfolio Strategy. it provoked a number of reactions, none stronger than recognition of how unusual the sequence appears -- and, in that context, how totally exceptional US earnings growth has been in 2026. does this set up for some form of a letdown next year? probably. do I want to pick a serious fight today with double digit earnings growth next year? I do not.

2. here's another angle on how unique this year has been -- it plots the change in expectations for S&P earnings growth in 2026 since the start of 2025. while making zero claim of causality, note how utterly bulletproof the trend of things has been over recent months (chart credit = Dan Chavez):

Source: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities / US Portfolio Strategy; chart credit Dan Chavez. Past performance is not indicative of future results.