GS Peter Callahan TMT August

GS US TMT .. August .. Peter Callahan · Goldman Sachs · TMT Sector Specialist Sun 16 Aug 2026, 7:54am ET

The NDX grinded out another ‘win’ on the week (up 3wks in a row and just ~2% below ATHs) as the macro temperature has come down (Rates & Oil less in focus = only 3 in 10 chance of a rate hike priced in Sept), volumes have dried up (Friday = lowest volume day of the year) and Factor vol has settled in (Mo’ vol has normalized and the VIX closed at a YTD low on Friday). The big picture story in Tech remains supportive, in my mind – catalysts, valuations, technicals, fundamentals – though it feels like the lack of thematic or subsector “direction” (do Semis lead? Mag 7? Software?) is creating a bit more of a “back footed”, “picking spots” feel to the activity right now (.. that said, GS PB data noted long buys in singles and covering in macro products – a ‘healthy’ flow posture ..).

Top inbounds last week .. why as AMZN gotten stuck in the mud? … Memory move = sustainable bounce? .. late-week fade in Optical (LITE, COHR) .. Software feedback / flows post WDAY headlines? …. NFLX – feedback? ... CSCO: Bounce or laggard form here? .. set-ups into next wave of earnings (ADI, MRVL, SNOW, NVDA, AVGO, CRWD, PANW)? .. vibes on SPCX lately? …

GS Communacopia+ Technology … we are <1 month out from our flagship GS TMT Conference (Sept 8– 11 in San Fan) ... I can’t wait .. full details (incl agenda) here:

Stat of the week .. Korean equities finished higher every day, gaining 12.7% and snapping a 7-week losing streak – and 9 of the last 10 – the longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis. Of note, this was not the same high-volatility rally we have seen throughout the year. KOSPI volatility fell more than 20 points – its largest weekly decline in over two years – even as the index surged higher, mirroring some of what we are seeing in the US (h/t L Coppersmith).

Events Watch = quieter week (Import Prices & Philly Fed + Walmart & ADI earnings).

Mon 8/17: Aug. Empire Manufacturing. Earnings: Pre: Geely Auto, HTHT // Post: FN. GS hosts: HAWK. RDDT: Reddit to join S&P 500, effective 18-Aug. Also: Nasdaq Virtual Investor Conference Asia; Needham Virtual Industrial Tech | Robotics | & Power 1x1 Conference; Rosenblatt’s 6th Annual Technology Summit: The Age of AI; WordCamp ‘WordPress’ US event.

Tue 8/18: July Housing Starts + Import Prices. Earnings: Pre: BIDU, Home Depot, KLAR, Xiaomi // Post: JKHY, KEYS. GS hosts: HAWK. GS hosting Silicon Valley AI Field Trip. Also: Seaport 15th Annual Summer Investor Conference 2026; WordCamp ‘WordPress’ US event.

Wed 8/19: July FOMC Meeting Minutes. Earnings: Pre: ADI, KC, Kuaishou, Lowe’s, Target // Post: BILL, WOLF. GS hosts: HAWK + ANGI. GS hosting Silicon Valley AI Field Trip. Also: Needham Virtual Semiconductor & SemiCap 1x1 Conference; WordCamp ‘WordPress’ US event; AI Summit Seoul.

Thu 8/20: July Leading Index + Philly Fed. Earnings: Pre: BABA, Deere, NTES, Walmart // Post: Accelink. GS hosts: ANGI. Also: Needham Virtual Semiconductor & SemiCap 1x1 Conference; AI Summit Seoul.

Fri 8/21: Earnings Pre: Innolight. CMCSA / VSNT: EPL Season Kicks Off. AI Summit Seoul.

Software = come back player of the year? …. the Software sector just got back to FLAT on the year (and has quietly o/p Semis for 3wks in a row, longest streak in ~15-months – tipping Software’s 14 day RSI into ‘overbought’ levels) … while there is plenty of investor interest in parts of the sector (data infra / tools + security) – boosted by some “fresh-ness” to idea generation in these areas (e.g. ‘new’ ideas relative to revisiting the same AI / Semis names) -- investor sentiment in Apps Software / SaaS has yet to inflect (despite the recent moves & WDAY headlines) ... from my vantage point, positioning in Software feels ‘middle of the road’ relative to YTD exposure levels (albeit very fragmented).

For a check-down on YTD action: Security up ~80–100% YTD (PANW, FTNT, OKTA, CRWD) .. Consumption up ~50–80% (DDOG, SNOW) .. names that are (surprisingly.. ?) unchanged on the year / up small (CDNS, Unity, MSFT, TEAM, PATH, WDAY, MDB) .. the names that are still big YTD laggards (INTU −45% YTD, HUBS −40%, CRM −24%, ADBE −22%, NOW −17%, ADSK −13%)…