GS Stankard GS Vol Views

GS Stankard - GS Vol Views 16 Sep 2026 Robbie Stankard · Goldman Sachs · GS Vol Views desk · Analyst, Global Banking & Markets, FICC & Equities Wed 16 Sep 2026, 12:25pm ET

GS Vol Views – our periodic update on flows, ideas, and content from our derivatives desk. Open to feedback so please let us know what might be most useful...

Overview: Our flows are mixed but exude a modestly defensive tilt. Positioning overall feels guarded, yet there is a lack of panic -- our vol panic index sits just above its 10-year average (chart).

The desk views that the broader AI story is still intact, however, as the market digests potential AI "speed bumps", more near-term volatility is expected .

Monetary policy is sharply in focus through the rest of the week -- implied move through Friday is 1.15%.

I) We continue to see violent moves under the hood -- Monday brought the worst day for our AI vs AI at Risk pair (GSPUARTI) since Deepseek (-9.96%, -2.2 std dev move).

- Striking Stat: 6m realized vol on our GS TMT Momentum Winners vs Losers is ~88v vs ~14v for the SPX (chart).

II) We are also experiencing a regime shift in the momentum factor as the performance of short-term winners has diverged from longer term winners at unprecedented levels .

- Our best-in-class structuring team has a full menu of ways to hedge factor exposures -- please reach out for implementations.

III) As investors calibrate the potential for slower AI development, we have seen restructuring of prior bullish positions.

- Ex: 35k NVDA Dec 245 300 call spreads rolled down-and-in to 70k Nov 230 275 Call spread, gs cust traded neutral

IV) With vols no longer prohibitively expensive, there has been renewed interest in stock replacement trades as a way to retain equity upside exposure with defined downside risk.

V) A key takeaway from the GS Retail + Consumer conference is that in the face of macro headwinds the consumer remains resilient yet discerning . We expect this to continue to drive volatile price action in the sector.

- Trade Idea -- Buy CCL Straddles -- to play for volatility in a name that is highly levered to middle- income consumer health

- CCL 2Oct26 22 straddle indicatively costs $2.15 (ref 22.50) and captures key catalysts including earnings on 9/29