GS US TMT today

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NDX +50 bps as markets try to break a 5-day losing streak for the NDX amidst dynamic market internals relative to a 15-handle VIX [e.g. moves in Rates, Oil, Cryptos & Gold all week]

…. it should be a quieter Summer Friday ahead of Jackson Hole + a busy week of Tech earnings next week (NVDA, WDAY, CRM, CRWD, OKTA – lmk where we can help?) – though, note that GIR is hosting a webinar today (@ 11am ET) to discuss key themes, developments and debates in AI that emerged from it’s Silicon Valley AI Field Trip this past week [link avail here].

… charts + stocks we are watching ...

Come-back-kids … a number of heavily out-of-favor names starting to see some ‘technical’ repair – back above 200-dma for the 1x all year -- think UBER, WDAY, CRM, SAP, ADSK, FDS, IT, HRB, Payroll (ADP, PAYX), OMC, et al (.. what’s not quite there yet? NFLX, HUBS, ADBE, INTU ..). something I am watching carefully into a heavy stretch of off-quarter earnings – beat-and-fades or can they hold?..

‘Experiences’ .. despite some conflicting datapoints on the consumer (namely WMT yesterday), the market appears increasingly comfortable with consumer ‘experiences’ names as a pocket to ‘broaden out’ into

amidst more 2-way AI price action – think: EXPE now up 17 of 20 days, UBER up 10 of 14 days, DIS 11 of 15 days, DASH up 11 of 13 days (and 15 of 17) and ABNB impressively holding its post earnings gains. ..

Cyclicals … Europe down 7 days in a row (SXXP Index) into today and the GS Cycs vs Defs pair now down 7 days in a row (and 10 of 11) .. that said .. ADI just had a great print and recent econ datapoints have been supportive as our Industrials Specialist (R Novak) points out –'We are 7 months into an ISM cycle that we would characterize as early innings. 55+ is the sweet spot – a level we reach just two weeks ago. Supportive data from the Philly Fed [yesterday] morning meaningfully beating expectations, taking a step higher from last month and reaching essentially decade highs’

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Federal Reserve; as of August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. link

AI blues … one feature of 2Q earnings has been the intense multiple compression for AI high-flyers – think: estimates up, stocks down for several names like -- COHR, ALAB, TTMI, MPWR, KEYS, LITE, STX,