GS Wijaya Energy Preview Recent Conversations 19 Aug 2026

GS Wijaya - Energy Natural Resources and Utilities Preview Recent Conversations 19 Aug 2026 Wijaya · Goldman Sachs · Associate, Energy, Natural Resources and Utilities Wed 19 Aug 2026, 10:10 AM ET

TRGP. Targa was the most asked about stock yesterday – with the stock +7% on the back of the XOM headlines. To set the stage – we think TRGP was one of the more owned stocks for the majority of 2026 – specialists convos typically highlight (A) production tied to Majors with no signs of slowdown and real exit to exit growth this year into 2027, (B) preference for quality and (C) execution broadly. The gas behind pipe narrative is still alive and well (and really caught fire over the last few months) – and Targa has been one of the big beneficiaries over the last couple of months. The biggest source of pushback has been valuation – the stock is +60% YTD vs Brent +50% … where most folks were playing for somewhere in the low 300s lately. Back of the envelope math had most expecting LSD-MSD move in the stock before the open – and most folks weren’t expecting anything materially higher given relative positioning. Price action stuck out to us on the day – with one of the biggest questions on the desk being ‘is this real buying or representative of covering?’ At the time of writing the stock – TRGP is underperforming relative to peers (albeit small)…

TTF Trade. Is the TTF trade in the later innings – or is there still room to run? Probably the worst kept secret at this point that most dedicated folks think there is material upside to TTF – with trading ranges anywhere from $80-$100 as we inch closer to the fall and winter. Price action for most of the names has been lackluster over the last month – TTF is +10% over the last month vs VG +1%, GLNG +5% and LNG +4% (albeit EQNR is trading broadly in line with the gas move). We would say this trade is closer to 8/10 crowded at this point (into 2Q reporting season was closer to 10/10). Some more recent inbounds highlighting concerns on how crowded the trade is + more recent focus on US gas – think EXE, EQT, RRC, AR. It was a matter of time before Henry Hub became more topical as we get closer to October (seeing HH Oct26 at $2.88 and HH Oct27 at $3.30) – and frankly the US gas conversations have generally been trending more positive on the back of these pipeline developments in the Permian.

Refining – temperature check? Well, the macro keeps getting better for products and the narrative is harder to fight. Cracks continue to grind higher into triple digit territory, gasoline has rebounded and middle disty still looks solid. Downtime conversations accelerating as of late and important to note we have already pushed out maintenance across US / EU kits. The bear pitch continues to be (A) Chinese product export levels – small move higher this week, but probably not large enough to matter for now, (B) rate of change on estimate revisions - having more convos firmly on 4Q vs anything else and (C) demand destruction at current levels. Valuation conversations have almost completely grinded to a halt – ie think there is some recognition that products issue globally will outweigh ‘what the historical multiple for VLO / MPC / PBF etc has been’. Recall we have been flipping between oil vs products and products vs oil for the better part of the last few months – and at this point crude feels more mixed for now (ie can make the case for crude to go up/down $10/b from here) whereas more tilting positive products.

DC Update. The AI trade was under pressure for the better part of the day – but TLN u/p stuck out to most for the latter half of the day. This headline was driving the majority of inbounds: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to Limit New Data Centers … executive order requiring local approval to receive state permits for DC projects and newer hurdle for development (EO makes GRID standards binding for operating in PA). The consensus view from my conversations on the desk – ‘another regulatory hurdle with the midterms fast approaching and delays will likely continue’… The last month has been tougher for the broader AI trade on DC development – recall we have seen NY governor announce a pause on…