HawkEye 360 Inc. (HAWK) 2Q26 First Take Beat in quarter, full year guidance in line with consensus

Equity Research 13 August 2026 | 6:41PM EDT

HawkEye 360 Inc. (HAWK): 2Q26 First Take: Beat in quarter, full-year guidance in line with consensus

Bottom Line: HAWK 2Q26 results were above consensus for revenue and EBITDA. Noah Poponak, CFA | HAWK provided full-year 2026 guidance with revenue above consensus, and EBITDA Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC bracketing consensus. The company notes its next phase of constellation growth Connor Dessert includes Clusters 15 and 17, and its first cluster of Block 3 Kestrel satellites, to further | expand its collection capacity and global coverage. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Nizar Mesani Details: 2Q26 revenue of $49.8mn is up 87% yoy (9% above FactSet Consensus at | $45.6mn), driven by international revenue of $21.0mn (up 134% yoy). Adjusted Goldman Sachs India SPL EBITDA of $7.0mn compares to $7.8mn in the prior-year period. Net loss widened to Amanda Fenenbock, CFA | $(15.3)mn from $1.6mn in the prior-year period. Operating cash was $11.6mn (vs. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC $4.6mn yoy), and free cash flow improved to $5.4mn (vs. $(1.3)mn yoy). Backlog stood at $292mn during the end of this quarter. The company provided guidance for Tomas Russo | full-year 2026 revenues between $215mn-$220mn (vs consensus $214mn) and adj. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC EBITDA between $30mn-$36mn (vs consensus $34.7mn).

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Goldman Sachs HawkEye 360 Inc. (HAWK)

Exhibit 1: HAWK variance table vs. GS estimates $mn, except EPS YoY change Actual GS Estimate $ Variance % Variance 2Q25 Growth REVENUE Total Sales % 26.6 87.1%

Adjusted EBITDA Total Adjusted EBITDA % 7.8 -10.1%

MARGIN Total Adjusted EBITDA Margin 14.1% 2.4% 1170 bp 29.4% -1530 bp

EBIT ( % 0.8 -1550.5% Interest expense, net ( % (0.9) 109.5% Other expense (income), net % 0.1 4561.2% EBT ( % 1.6 -1031.3% Income tax expense (benefit) 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 Effective tax rate -1.8% 0.0% -180 bp 0.0% -180 bp Net income ( % 1.6 -1048.4% Net income attributable to common shareholders ( % 0.1 -3986.6% Diluted EPS ($0.07) ($0.15) $0.08 -53.9% n/a Diluted Shares % 7.4 737.7%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Our 12-month price target of $37 is derived from a target 15.0X CY27 EV/Sales. Key risks include: (1) High degree of revenue concentration, (2) Launch availability, cost and success, (3) Defense and national security priorities.

HAWK 12m Price Target: $37.00 Price: $24.37 Upside: 51.8%

Buy GS Forecast 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Market cap: $2.7bn Revenue ($ mn) Enterprise value: $2.2bn EBITDA ($ mn) m ADTV: $24.9mn EBIT ($ mn) ( United States EPS ($) Americas Aerospace & Defense P/E (X) NM NM 96.1 49.1 M&A Rank: 3 EV/EBITDA (X) -- FCF yield (%) NM (0.2) 0.4 1.6 Dividend yield (%) -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt/EBITDA (X) ( )

3/26 6/26E 9/26E 12/26E EPS ($) (

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 13 Aug 2026 close.