Jefferies Sell-side卖方

Highlights from the Lowlands

Aug 16, 20263 pages页

From the report报告摘录TKH Electrification Recovery: 160% EBITA recovery in Electrification segment with accelerating volume growth, driven by Fastned's 40% PT increase (32% BEV volume growth, 44% pick-up) and stabilizing costs enabling…

Inside the report报告内文 Verbatim from the original PDF — first pages原版 PDF 开篇原文 · 逐字摘录

Equity Research EUROPE | European Midcaps August 14, 2026

Highlights from the Lowlands Exhibit 1 - TKH Group discount to peers 10%

TKH Group confirmed the break-up of the conglomerate is on track, with -10%

the separation of Electrification, which reported a 160% EBITA recovery. We -20%

increased our Fastned PT by 40%, based on accelerating volume growth, -40%

and stabilising costs, driving operating leverage. We preview Alfen 1H26 -60%

results, and see TKH's 26% growth in onshore as a positive indicator for Premium/discount to peers . Smart Grid Solutions. Last but not least, please register for the Jefferies Source: Factset, Jefferies calculations

Benelux Mid-Cap tour. Exhibit 2 - Surging BEV registrations since March TKH Group (TWEKA NA, Buy) Accelerating electrification recovery supports the breakup 72% 72%

of the conglomerate. 1H26 results reflected an accelerating Electrification recovery, a 39% 43% 37% 44% 41% 44% 48%

turnaround in Digitalisation, improving momentum in Vision Technologies, but still lower 30% 36% 27% 27% 26% 27% 28% 31% 32% 25% 22% 37% 28% 28% 28% 27% 14% 28% 26% 27%

results in Automated Machinery. 1H26 adjusted EBITA surged 42% to €113.7m, 11% ahead 20% 24% 22% 23% 21% 12% 19% 6%

of consensus €102.2m, with accelerating earnings momentum from 16% in 1Q26, to 67% 4% 2% 2% 1% -2% -1% -1% -3% -5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

in 2Q26, driven by Electrification, and a turnaround in Digitalisation. Management confirmed .

Source: Country data, Jefferies estimates the separation of Electrification is progressing under a dual track, with completion targeted in 4Q26/1Q27. We have re-built our model based on the new reporting segments. We have Exhibit 3 - Fastned electricity prices and gross increased FY26E EBITA by 10%, based on a 32% higher forecast for Electrification and profit (€) Digitalisation, and increased our SOTP/DCF-based PT by 12% to €

Fastned (FAST NA, Buy) Accelerating BEV adoption with stabilising costs driving operating

leverage. Fastned is benefiting from an accelerating shift towards BEVs, leading to volume

growth of 32% in 1Q26, picking up to 44% in 2Q26, as petrol prices were c.15% higher in 2Q26, 0.30

following the Middle East conflict. Although higher petrol prices (temporarily) support BEV Revenues / kWh Gross profit / kWh . registrations, the urgency of decarbonation is underlined by at least four heatwaves, drought, Source: Fastned

and multiple wildfires this summer. BEVs are becoming more affordable, while technology Exhibit 4 - Benelux midcaps EV/IC vs. ROIC/ improves, leading to substantially lower operating costs. We estimate the costs for home and WACC fast charging were, respectively, 52% lower and 3% higher than the costs for petrol refuelling 4.5 Ferrari Group

in July. With a stabilising cost base, operating leverage is increasing, and 1H26 operational 4.0

EBITDA more than doubled. Fastned now expects FY26E operational EBITDA margin at c.45%, 3.0 D'Ieteren

vs. 35%-40% previously. We have increased FY26E operational EBITDA by 22%, and underlying InPost IMCD y = 1.0161x + 0.4306 2.0 R² = 0.8712 TKH Arcadis DEME Vopak

EBITDA by 70%, and stick to our Buy rating with an increased €42.0 PT. Azelis Aalberts 1.5 Alfen

Alfen (ALFEN NA, Buy). Preview 1H26 results. Alfen will release 1H26 interim results on ROIC/WACC (x)

. August 18th. We are projecting EBITDA will be 37% higher at €17.8m, 10% ahead of consensus Source: Jefferies estimates

€16.1m, driven by 20% higher revenues at €254.6m, in line with consensus €258.1m, with growth of 4% in Smart Grid Solutions, and 93% in Energy Storage, partly offset by 15% decline in EV Charging. Note that TKH Group reported 26% growth in onshore cables, after the removal of regulatory constraints, which is a positive indicator for Smart Grid Solutions. Alfen sees FY26E as a transformational year, with relatively more stable revenues and earnings, before a return to profitable growth from FY27E. Management is guiding for c.4% higher revenues in the range of €435m-€475m, resulting in a 4%-7% EBITDA margin. Note that Energy Storage revenues will be front-loaded this year, vs. back-end loaded last year, likely leading to 50% lower revenues in 2H26E.

Jefferies…

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