India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY closed 1 lower w w

Portfolio Strategy Research 14 August 2026 | 5:50PM BST

NIFTY closed 1% lower w/w; Domestic fund flows moderated in July; MSCI rebal to drive strong passive inflows in India; 2Q saw healthy mid-teen earnings; Consumption strength in focus

n Performance/Valuation: NIFTY declined 1% w/w. Real n Beats outpaced misses with 47% companies reporting Sunil Koul | Estate led (+1%) while Metals, FMCG lagged (down 2%). beats vs. 36% missing consensus estimates, with the Goldman Sachs International

MSCI India fP/E is trading at 20.4x, at about 86% largest number of beats in commodities, financials, Amorita Goel, CFA | premium to MXAPJ. materials and utilities. Largecaps delivered more beats Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

than Midcaps. Companies surprised positively on Timothy Moe, CFA n FII Flows: FIIs bought $0.2bn wtd (-$25bn YTD). Foreign |

flows have inflected since mid-June, with $5bn inflows. revenue growth. Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

MSCI index rebalance, effective on August 31st, will likely n Looking ahead, earnings downgrades have stabilized drive US$1.4bn passive inflows to Indian equities, per QTD. 6-month profits are tracking c.48% of the our estimates, the largest in the EM region. full-year estimates, close to historical average. n DII Flows: Inflows in domestic funds dropped by 15% in July, to US$2.6bn, driven by outflows from Largecap Focus: Consumption Strength funds. SIP inflows remained sticky, up +1% mom to n Consumer companies delivered large earnings beats US$3.3bn. Fund cash levels improved in July to $14bn (+4-7% avg. EPS surprise) in 2Q CY26, with historically (up from lows of $12bn in June), per our estimate. large number of companies beating sales estimates. Revenue growth accelerated for consumer Focus: 1QFY27 / 2QCY26 Earnings Wrap discretionaries to 28-31% yoy, and consumer staples to n Earnings season concluded this week. Based on 156 13% yoy in 2Q, aided by policy easing measures like MSCI India companies (97% index cap), MSCI India GST rate cuts, interest rate cuts and personal income profits grew 6% yoy, dragged lower by commodities. tax cuts in 2025. Looking ahead, consensus expects Excluding commodities, profits accelerated to a consumption earnings growth to strengthen in CY27. 6-quarter high of 15% yoy, 3pp above estimates. Earnings revisions in consumer pockets have largely Revenue growth for ex-financials & commodities hit a stabilized QTD. 3-year high at 18% yoy.

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Goldman Sachs India Weekly Kickstart

Focus: 1Q FY27 / 2Q CY26 Earnings Wrap

Exhibit 1: Based on reported results from 156 MSCI India companies (97% index Exhibit 2: Earnings surprised positively on average by +3pp, most in materials, cap), MSCI India ex-commodity profits grew at a strong pace of 15% yoy in 2Q commodities, utilities and financials CY26

PPT contribution to MSCI India 2QCY26E EPS yoy growth 18% 3% BSE200 16% 3% BSE200 MSCI India 14% Sectors 12% -8% Telcos Average 10% -6% Healthcare 8% Earnings 15% -4% Info Tech 6% MSCI India actual results: Surprise in -4% Industrials 4% based on reported results 2% 1Q FY27 (%) Cons. Retail, Svc. 6% 2% 3% Staples 0% 3% Autos

MSCI ex-Commods MSCI India Auto Banks Insurance NBFC Telco Utilities Staples

Metals & Mining Energy InfoTech Health care

Cons. Ret. & Svcs. Real Estate Industrials

Cement & Materials 6% Financials 12% Metals & Mining 19% Utilities 19% Energy 24% Cement & Other Material -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: MSCI India ex-commodity profit growth accelerated to mid-teens for Exhibit 4: Excluding financials and commodities, revenue growth accelerated to the first time in 6 quarters a 3-year high at 18% yoy

MSCI India Earnings growth MSCI India sales growth (Reported Quarterly, % yoy) 60% (ex-financials, quarterly reported, % yoy) MSCI India Ex-Financials 50% 40% ex-Commodities ex-Financials,Commods 30% 15% 18% 20% 10%

-50% 3QFY14 1QFY15 1QFY18 3QFY18 1QFY19 3QFY19 -40%

1QFY17 3QFY17…