India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY closed flat w w despite rising bond yields and oil prices

Portfolio Strategy Research 21 August 2026 | 12:49PM BST

NIFTY closed flat w/w despite rising bond yields and oil prices; Hawkish tone in RBI MPC Minutes; FCNR(B) deadline brought forward; Inflecting foreign flows

n Performance: NIFTY recovered over the last two trading $0.3bn inflows wtd (-$24bn YTD). Foreign flows have Sunil Koul | sessions, after declining for 7 consecutive sessions, inflected since mid-June, with $6bn inflows, after Goldman Sachs International

closing the week flat. Across sectors, Metals led (+1%) c.$29bn outflows in 1H. Amorita Goel, CFA | while IT, FMCG lagged (down 2-3%). Brent crude rose n India received the largest foreign inflows in 2H so far, Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

close to the $95/bbl mark. Timothy Moe, CFA compared to other major markets in EM. | Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte n Valuation: MSCI India traded at fP/E of 20.3x, at about n Flows inflected in the secondary market, while primary an 87% premium to MXAPJ. inflows picked up. Among sectors, consumer n Earnings: Earning revisions were flat w/w, with modest discretionary and financials have seen the most foreign upgrades in metals/mining (+0.1%), while pharma saw inflows since mid-June. cuts (-0.3%). n RBI Policy: RBI minutes struck a more hawkish tone than Focus: Monsoon Tracker the Governor’s policy statement. Our economists n Cumulative monsoon rainfall so far (Jun 1 - Aug 20) is continue to expect 50bp of cumulative policy rate hikes, tracking 13% below normal with c.40% of India 25bp each in Dec’26 and Feb’27. receiving deficient rainfall. Water levels in reservoirs are 3% below normal. n RBI FX Measures: RBI announced that the FCNR(B) swap facility for new deposits will close a month earlier on 31 n Summer crop sowing is tracking modestly below levels August 2026 (previously 30 September), likely reflecting seen in the last few years. Farm tractor volume growth the RBI’s assessment that BoP stress has eased. Our picked up in July from 1Y lows in June. economists estimate net FCNR(B) inflows at around Note: We will pause the India Weekly Kickstart next Friday, and $40bn. will resume publication on September 4th.

Focus: Inflecting Foreign Flows n FIIs remained buyers of Indian equities this week, with

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Goldman Sachs India Weekly Kickstart

Exhibit 1: Foreign flows have inflected in Indian equities, with US$6bn inflows Exhibit 2: India received the largest foreign inflows in 2H so far, compared to since mid-June, after sharp de-risking in 1H other major markets in EM

US$ bn Cumulative FII flows in Indian equities (US$ bn) NIFTY EM FII Flows (US$bn, 2Htd 2026) (rebased to 100) 10.0 $ -$

-$ +$6bn since -$25.0 FII flows (LHS, US$bn) mid-Jun 85 -15.0 NIFTY (RHS, rebased to 100) -$30.0 -$29bn peak- to-trough -20.0 -18.5 -$35.0 80

Indonesia India Qatar Turkey UAE Brazil

Saudi Arabia Thailand Taiwan South Africa Korea Malaysia Philippines 22-Apr-26 20-May-26 12-Aug-26 1-Jul-26 31-Dec-25 14-Jan-26 28-Jan-26 11-Feb-26 25-Feb-26 11-Mar-26 25-Mar-26 8-Apr-26 6-May-26 3-Jun-26 17-Jun-26 15-Jul-26 29-Jul-26

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Local exchanges, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Flows inflected in the secondary market, and primary inflows picked Exhibit 4: Among sectors, consumer discretionary and financials have seen the up most foreign inflows

Monthly FII flows in Indian equities (US$ bn) FII flow across India sectors in 2026 (US$ bn) Secondary market Primary market 6.0 end-Feb to mid-Jun 4.0 4.0 mid-Jun to mid-Aug

Pharma Chemicals & other Staples

Consumer Disc. Others Industrials Utilities Property Telcos Infotech Energy

Banks, Other Fin -10.0 -12.0 As of August 20, 2026

Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26

Source: NSDL, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: NSDL, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research