ING Think g10 fx talking october 2026

THINK Economic and financial analysis

Article | 12 October 2026 FX TALKING

G10 FX Talking: Independent euro weakness in play At a time when US economic growth appears solid and the Fed is intent on tightening policy, French budget unrest has only served to soften an already weak EUR/USD. We now think it can stay pressured at the lower end of a 1.10-15 range over the next three to six months. The biggest threat to the dollar probably comes from any new White House policy post-midterms

EUR/USD looks set to stay pressured in a new 1.10-15 range

Main ING G10 FX Forecasts EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD

THINK Economic and financial analysis

EUR/USD: French debt concern dominates Spot One month bias 1M 3M 6M 12M

A hawkish Federal Reserve hike in September and a continued rise in US yields are pressure testing the global financial system. The most recent asset class to give way is French government debt, where politicians lack the urgency to tackle budget deficits. We see this more akin to the 2018 Italian debt crisis – again, driven by elections – rather than Greece’s selective default in 2012. Expect more volatility in the OAT-Bund spread into year-end, but passage of modest fiscal consolidation should prevent a much heavier sell-off in French debt and the euro. EUR/USD is set to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range. The main risk to the upside stems from uncertain White House policy post the November midterm elections.

Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts