Invesco uncommon truths hot hot hot july 2026

Uncommon truths Hot, Hot, Hot!

We are seeing extreme climatic conditions but 2027 temperature 1.39°C above the 1850-1900 average, could be even worse. The trend looks set for a 3.5- according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change 4.2C change by 2100. This suggests we need Service (June 2024 was the hottest at 1.50°C above massive mitigation and adaptation spending. the 1850-1900 average).

Hot, Hot, Hot (borrowed from The Merrymen) could Unfortunately, it could get even hotter. Though 2026 describe the situation in the Middle East. The Brent first may not turn out to be the hottest year on record, I think futures price has risen back to near $100, bond yields 2027 could be, due to building El Nino conditions. The are up, the dollar is strengthening and stock markets global sea-surface temperature averaged 20.86°C in are down. However, implied volatility indices such as June, the hottest June on record for extra-polar (60°S- VIX and MOVE suggest there is little panic. We are 60°N) oceans, with high temperatures particularly monitoring the situation but still expect global economic notable in the Pacific, including some of the Nino 3.4 resilience and stick with our preference for cyclical region used to monitor El Nino events. From July assets. However, that could change if the Strait of onwards, the historical peaks came in 2023, a period Hormuz and Red Sea remain closed into Q4. that preceded the 2023-24 El Nino event associated with the record temperatures of 2024. But the title of this document refers to the extreme temperatures seen in Europe and North America To that building El Nino event must be added the (accompanied by wildfires in Canada, France and overall warming trend (see Figure 2b). Are rising Spain, extremely low rainfall in the UK, low rivers in temperatures (and broader climate change) caused by many parts of Europe and spikes in excess deaths in human activity? Perhaps it is just coincidence, but the countries such as Belgium, France, Germany and atmospheric concentration of CO2 reached a new high Spain). Based on data from the UK Meteorological of 427.35 parts per million (ppm) in 2025, according to Office’s Hadley Centre, I reckon the average global the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric temperature (sea and air surface) in January-May was Administration. Figure 1 shows this to be well above 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 average for the time of the norms of the last 800,000 years. As CO2 year. That is bad but was exceeded in 2024 (1.59), concentration is correlated to CO2 emissions in the 2025 (1.52), 2016 (1.48) and 2020 (1.45). previous one hundred years, I believe that rising CO2 emissions have contributed to rising temperatures Then came June, the hottest ever in Western Europe (molecules of greenhouse gases such as CO2 absorb and the second hottest globally, with the surface air energy, thus holding heat in the atmosphere).

Figure 1 – Atmospheric concentration of CO2 from -803,719 to 2100 in parts per million (ppm)

Note: “Actual” data is from the year -803,719 (i.e. 803,719 B.C.) to 2026. Data is not available for all years, so the date axis is not to scale. Data is shown for each year from 1750, using simple interpolation to fill any gaps. Data from 1958 to 2025 is based on observations at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Mauna Lao Observatory on Hawaii. The 2026 datapoint (429.7 ppm) is based on the forecast change for 2026 produced by the UK’s Meteorological Office. Data prior to 1958 is derived from ice core records, as provided by NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories. Projections assume that CO2 concentration is determined by emissions in the previous 100 years (using an econometric relationship derived from data since 1750). Projections rely on forecasts of future CO 2 emissions by low, middle and high-income countries (the global total being an aggregation of the three): “recent trends” assumes a continuation of recent trends in declines in the CO2 intensity of GDP and growth in GDP per capita, whereas “optimistic” assumes a more aggressive reduction in CO2 intensity (see the detailed explanation in the appendix). In both cases, population forecasts are taken…