J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 3Q26 First Take In line results, much stronger NII guide, lower buybacks

Equity Research 13 October 2026 | 7:50AM EDT

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM): 3Q26 First Take: In-line results, much stronger NII guide, lower buybacks

JPM reported 3Q26 EPS of $5.57 vs GSe/Visible Alpha Consensus Data Richard Ramsden | $6.10/$5.92, with core EPS of $6.05, vs. our/consensus like estimates of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC $6.28/$6.04 (adjusting for a $658mn loss on equity investments, $170mn of James Yaro CVA/DVA losses, a $63mn legal charge, a $539mn non-core reserve build, and | normalizing the tax rate). Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Divyam Harlalka Key takeaway: We expect a largely in-line market reaction, as: 1) core earnings were | in-line, on slightly lower PPNR but lower provisions, and continued, strong balance Goldman Sachs India SPL sheet growth; 2) positively, the company increased the 2026 total NII outlook to Matthew Weng | ~$106.2bn (vs. ~$105.5bn previously), which is above consensus and GSe, on both Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC stronger core and markets NII, likely driven by stronger loan growth trends (+3% QoQ). Against this, the company increased 2026 expenses to ~$108.6bn (from Lokesh Kumar Sangewar | ~$107.5bn); 3) Further, the company provided a constructive 2027 NII ex Markets Goldman Sachs India SPL guide of ~$107bn, up 10% YoY, well above Street expectations of $103.1bn. We Thirukumaran R believe that the market will look to better understand the higher NII (ex markets | guide, given more beneficial rate structures, coupled with solid deposit and loan Goldman Sachs India SPL

growth trends; 4) JPM did not provide 2027 expense guidance that correlates with Tim Dikarev | the NII guide, which we expect to be a focus on the upcoming earnings call; and 5) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

gross buybacks came in notably lower than expectations, at $1.1bn (vs. $8.3bn/7.7bn for GSe/Street), and there are ~$36.0bn/32.5bn in GSe/Street buybacks in 2027E estimates, which we believe likely need to come down, as the company prioritizes balance sheet growth, and given the AOCI impact on CET1 from higher interest rates.

Summary of key quarterly trends: The quarterly core ROTCE of 21.5% came in ~30bps above the Street, and ~455bps above management’s medium-term ROTCE guidance of 17%. JPM’s NII came in ~0.5% better than GSe/consensus, on in-line avg. earning assets vs. consensus (higher loans and higher deposits, and higher securities and higher cash), and a 2bps NIM beat, on 6bps higher deposit costs, vs. 7bps/1bps higher loan/securities yields, all vs. the Street. Core fee income was 1% below consensus, on a miss in FICC. The core efficiency ratio was ~30bps worse than consensus. The company repurchased $1.1bn of gross stock in the quarter, with a 13.9% CET1 ratio, vs. a 12.0% estimated target.1

Summary of guidance and vs. expectations: Management increased the 2026 total NII guide to ~$106.2bn from ~$105.5bn (which compared to GSe/Street of

1 Note: Assume 50bps mgmt. buffer

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Goldman Sachs J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

~$106.1bn/$105.5bn), while increasing the NII ex markets guidance to ~$97.2bn from ~$96.5bn. JPM provided 2027 NII ex Markets guidance of ~$107bn. JPM increased the 2026 expense guidance to ~$108.6bn from ~$107.5bn, and vs. GSe/Street of ~$108.2bn/$108.1bn. Finally, it reiterated 2026 credit card NCOs guidance of ~3.2%, lower than GSe of 3.4%.

We look for further clarity on: 1) the key assumptions underpinning the stronger NII ex Markets guide into 2027, and the impact of Markets NII; 2) the associated expense run rate into 2027 that correlates to the NII ex Markets guide; 3) the sustainability of the strong loan growth in the quarter; 3) questions around deposit competition, given 7bps higher…