Japan August Trade Crude Oil Import Prices Dip Temporarily, but Trade Balance in Deficit for 4 Months with Import Value Rem...

Economics Research 16 September 2026 | 11:10AM JST

Japan: August Trade: Crude Oil Import Prices Dip Temporarily, but Trade Balance in Deficit for 4 Months with Import Value Remaining High

BOTTOM LINE: August export volume maintained positive growth for the sixth Yuriko Tanaka | consecutive month at +2.5% yoy, but turned down on a seasonally adjusted mom Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. basis (our calculation) to a decline of -3.3%. Semiconductor-related export and import values both continue to increase significantly. The import unit price for crude oil dipped temporarily in August, and crude oil import volume increased yoy for the second consecutive month. On the other hand, the import unit price for natural gas, which had been limited to a modest increase even after the Middle East disruption, has been rising since July.

Export value growth: 0 (relevance: 4; surprise: 0)

n Trade Balance: August: -¥1.1 tn vs. GS forecast: -¥1.0 tn, BBG consensus: -¥1.1 tn, August 2025: -¥2941 bn n Export Value (yoy): August: +19.3% vs. GS forecast: +18.5%, BBG consensus: +18.0%, July: +23.2%

n Import Value (yoy): August: +28.0% vs. GS forecast: +26.0%, BBG consensus: +26.1%, July: +27.9% n Export Volume (yoy): August: +2.5%, July: +5.2% n Import Volume (yoy): August: +2.7%, July: +1.2%

Trade data for August show that export value maintained high growth, although slowing slightly to +19.3% yoy (July: +23.2%). Import value also continued to increase sharply at +28.0% yoy (July: +27.9%). As a result, the trade deficit widened to -¥1.1 tn, from a deficit of -¥294.1 bn in August of last year.

Export volume maintained a yoy increase for the sixth consecutive month at +2.5% (July: +5.2%). However, on a seasonally adjusted mom basis (our calculation), volume turned down to a decline of -3.3% mom in August (July: +1.7% mom). Export volume to the US has seen a sharp increase of 20% yoy in July and August this year, a rebound from the impact of the imposition of US export tariffs last year. While export volume to China turned to a slight yoy increase in July for the first time in four months, it fell again by -1.2% yoy in August.

By export item (value basis; yoy), semiconductors and electronic components

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increased by +52.3% yoy, contributing +3.6 pp to export value growth, and semiconductor production equipment also increased by +40.1% (contribution: +1.7 pp). We note that the import value of semiconductors and electronic components also increased by +82.1% yoy.

Regarding crude oil imports, the import unit price calculated from import value and volume temporarily dipped in August to ¥16,325/bbl (July: ¥18,503/bbl), or US$101.6/bbl (July: US$114.33/bbl) in US dollar terms (these levels are +59.5% and +54.6% above the pre-conflict level in February, respectively). Crude oil import volume maintained a yoy increase for the second consecutive month, at +3.6% yoy. While crude oil import volume from the Middle East decreased by 30.9% yoy, crude oil imports from the US expanded sharply by +603.5% (July: +814.5%). The crude oil import volume is recovering to a level exceeding the monthly average of 2025. However, with crude oil supplies from the Middle East disrupted again and crude oil market prices surging, there is a high risk that Japan’s crude oil import prices will rise again from autumn.

The import unit price for natural gas, which had remained at a modest single-digit increase even after the Middle East conflict, rose in August to ¥2,425/mmbtu (July: ¥2,249/mmbtu), and in dollar terms to US$15.1/mmbtu (July: US$13.9/mmbtu). Compared to February, this represents a rise of +38.0% (July: +28.0%) in yen terms. Import volume was 4,990,000 tons, decreasing by -6.8% yoy (July: -4.8%). While natural gas imports from the Middle East decreased by 82.8% yoy to 147,000 tons, imports from the US increased by +146.3% yoy to 1,016,000 tons.

Exhibit 1: Exports, Imports and Trade Balance Exhibit 2: Export Volume by Region (Seasonally Adjusted Level) Percent change, Trillions of yen 2020=100…