Japan Focus of the Week BOJ Meeting, July Tokyo CPI, June Industrial Production

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 2:02PM JST

Japan Focus of the Week: BOJ Meeting, July Tokyo CPI, June Industrial Production

Focus Next Week Yuriko Tanaka | n We expect the BOJ to maintain the status quo, keeping the overnight call rate Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. target at 1.00%, at its July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM). Tomohiro Ota | n We forecast the July Tokyo new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy) at Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. +2.0% yoy, accelerating +0.1 pp from June. In addition to price increases in Akira Otani processed food and beverages, prices are likely to rise for PC, various | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. non-durable goods and leisure services. We forecast the core CPI (excludes fresh food) at +1.8% yoy, up +0.2 pp from June. n We expect June industrial production to rise +1.0% mom (May: +0.1%) for the third consecutive month of increase.

This Week’s Main Research n The Basic Policies for 2026, the first under the Takaichi administration, outline a major shift in the fiscal framework, including transitioning from single-year to multi-year budgets for investment projects, and replacing the previous fiscal consolidation target of delivering a primary surplus with the goal of steadily reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio through economic growth.

This Week’s Data and Events n June export volume maintained positive growth for the fourth consecutive month at +0.2% yoy, albeit modest. On a seasonally adjusted mom basis (our calculation), volume also increased marginally by +0.2%. Crude oil imports unit price in yen terms rose further in June, reaching 83% above the price in February, while the decline in crude oil import narrowed to -13.7% yoy from -57.3% yoy in May. Natural gas import volume turned positive yoy in June. n The June national new core CPI came in at +1.7% yoy, decelerating slightly from +1.8% in May, and came in below the market forecast (+1.8%). While food prices continued to decelerate across a wide range of items, a slowdown in mobile phone communication fees was the main negative contribution. The global core CPI (excludes food other than alcohol and energy) accelerated 0.1pp from May to +1.2% yoy. Meanwhile, the core CPI came in at +1.4%, a +0.2 pp acceleration from May, in line with the market forecast, due to an acceleration in gasoline prices.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs Japan Focus of the Week

Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events (July 27 - 31)

Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events JST Region Indicators and events GS Consensus Previous Jul. 27 8:50 JP Services Producer Price Index (Jun) yoy % +3.4% +3.3% 21:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders (Jun) mom % +0.9% +1.4% Core Capital Goods Shipments (Jun) mom % +0.1%

Jul. 28 JP JGB Liquidity Supply Auction 23:00 US Consumer Confidence (Jul) 92.3 91.2 US FOMC (Day 1)

Jul. 29 3:00 US FOMC (Day 2; Results) 3.50-3.75% 3.50-3.75% 3.50-3.75%

Jul. 30 JP 2-Year JGB Auction JP BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Day 1) 14:00 JP Consumer Confidence (Jul) 34.0 33.8 20:00 UK Bank of England MPC 3.75% 3.75% 21:30 US Personal Income (Jun) mom % +0.3% +0.7% Personal Spending (Jun) mom % +0.4% +0.7% Core PCE Price Index (Jun) mom % +0.1% +0.3% yoy % +3.3% +3.4% 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 21:30 US GDP (Q2; Advance) qoq ann % +2.3% +2.1% Private Consumption qoq ann % +2.3% +0.5% Core PCE Price Index (Q2; Advance) qoq ann % +4.4% 21:30 US Employment Cost Index (Q2; Advance) qoq % +0.8% +0.9%

Jul. 31 JP BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Day 2) 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% JP BOJ Outlook Report (Released with MPM Results) 8:30 JP Tokyo Area CPI (Jul Excl. fresh food (core CPI) yoy % +1.8% +1.7% +1.6% Excl. freshfood and energy (new-core CPI) yoy % +2.0% +2.0% +1.9% 8:30 JP Labor Market (Jun) Unemployment rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Job offers to applicants ratio 1.17X 1.17X 1.17X 8:50 JP Industrial Production (Jun) mom % +1.0% +0.6% +0.1% 8:50 JP Retail Sales (Jun) yoy % +2.0% +2.7% +5.0% mom % -2.5% -1.6% +1.7% 14:00 JP New Housing Starts (Jun) yoy % +12.5% +13.1% +33.9% 15:30 JP BOJ Governor Press…