Japan June National CPI New Core CPI Decelerates Slightly, Below Market Forecast, on Slowdown in Food Prices

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 10:03AM JST

Japan: June National CPI: New Core CPI Decelerates Slightly, Below Market Forecast, on Slowdown in Food Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The June national new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy) Tomohiro Ota | came in at +1.7% yoy, decelerating slightly from +1.8% in May, and came in below Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. the market forecast (+1.8%). In addition to the continued deceleration in food prices across a wide range of items, including rice prices, a slowdown in mobile phone communication fees was the main negative contribution. The global core CPI (excludes food other than alcohol and energy) accelerated slightly from May to +1.2% yoy. Meanwhile, the core CPI (excludes fresh food) came in at +1.4%, a +0.2 pp acceleration from May, in line with the market forecast, due to an acceleration in gasoline prices.

n National Core CPI (excl. fresh food): yoy, June: +1.6%, GS fcst: +1.5%, BBG consensus: +1.6%, May: +1.4% n National New Core CPI (excl. fresh food and energy): yoy, June: +1.7%, GS fcst: +1.8%, BBG consensus: +1.8%, May: +1.8% n National Global Core CPI (excl. food other than alcohol and energy): yoy, June: +1.2%, May: +1.1% n National Headline CPI: yoy, June: +1.7%, May: +1.5%

Month-on-month (seasonally adjusted)

n National Core CPI: mom, June: +0.2%, May: +0.4% n National New Core CPI: mom, June: +0.2%, May: +0.2% n National Global Core CPI (GS estimation): mom, June: +0.2%, May: +0.2% n National Headline CPI: mom, June: +0.3%, May: +0.4%

The June national new core CPI inflation rate came in at +1.7% yoy, a slight deceleration from +1.8% in May, and came in below the market forecast (+1.8%). In addition to the continued deceleration in food prices across a wide range of items, including rice prices, a slowdown in mobile phone communication fees was the main negative contribution. On the other hand, medical fees rose reflecting the government’s hike in medical treatment fees, and prices for some durable goods also rose.

Private-sector services (excluding rent) decelerated slightly to +2.8% mom annualized (our estimate), from +3.2% in May (excluding the impact of the effective

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free private high school tuition). The main driver was a slowdown in mobile phone communication fees (due to the base effect from a price hike in the same month last year). Although housing repair costs have continued to rise gradually since April, their positive contribution was small.

The global core CPI (excludes food other than alcohol and energy) accelerated slightly from May to +1.2% yoy.

Meanwhile, the decline in energy prices narrowed, from -2.5% yoy in May to -0.1% in June. Although there were no major fluctuations in the level of individual energy prices compared to May, the rate of increase of gasoline prices rose due to the drop-out of the base effect from the same month last year. As a result, the June core CPI accelerated by +0.2 pp from May to +1.6%, in line with the market forecast.

The headline index also accelerated by +0.2 pp, similar to the core CPI, to +1.7% from +1.5% in May.

The new core CPI inflation rate excluding one-off special factors* (our estimate) decelerated by -0.1 pp from May to +2.1% yoy.

The next announcement of Tokyo CPI data (July) is scheduled for July 31.

Exhibit 1: National CPI indices (year-on-year change) Exhibit 2: National CPI indices (month-on-month change, seasonally adjusted, annualized)

Percent change yoy Percent change yoy Percent change 1m annual rate Percent change 1m annual rate 6 6 10 10 Core (ex freshfood) 5 New core (ex freshfood & energy) 5 8 8 Global core (ex food & energy) 4 Super core (Global core ex rent) 4 6 6

Core (ex freshfood) -6 -2 -2 -8 New core (ex freshfood & energy) -8 Global core (ex food & energy) -

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research