Japan Q2 GDP Revised Up Slightly to +1.4 QoQ Annualized, Mainly on Capex

Economics Research 8 September 2026 | 10:17AM JST

Japan: Q2 GDP Revised Up Slightly to +1.4% QoQ Annualized, Mainly on Capex

BOTTOM LINE: The second preliminary estimate of 2026Q2 (April-June) real GDP Yuriko Tanaka | growth came in at +1.4% qoq annualized, a slight upward revision from the first Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. preliminary estimate of +1.1% (market forecast: +1.7%). Capex was revised up to -3.7% qoq annualized, from -4.6% in the first preliminary estimate, but it continued to show negative growth for the second consecutive quarter. Revisions to inventories, which were a major factor of fluctuation in the first preliminary estimate, were limited.

n Apr-Jun (Q2) real GDP growth: +1.4% qoq annualized; GS forecast: +1.3%, Mkt (Bloomberg): +1.7%, before revision: +1.1%.

2026Q2 real GDP growth revised up slightly to +1.4% qoq annualized, mainly due to capex: The second preliminary estimate of 2026Q2 (April-June) real GDP growth came in at +1.4% qoq annualized, a slight upward revision from the first preliminary estimate of +1.1% (market forecast: +1.7%).

Capex was revised up to -3.7% qoq annualized, from -4.6% in the first preliminary estimate, boosting the qoq annualized GDP growth rate by about 0.2 pp. This reflected the improvement in capex shown in the recently released MOF Corporate Statistics for the April-June quarter, but the fact remains that GDP capex has been negative for two consecutive quarters. While corporate capex plans for FY2026 (BOJ Tankan) remain at a high level due to investment demand for digitalization, efficiency improvements, and environmental measures, companies may have temporarily held off on investments amid high uncertainty, particularly regarding the situation in the Middle East, and there is also a possibility that delays occurred in machinery deliveries and construction progress on the back of supply disruptions and other factors.

Private consumption was revised up, albeit slightly, to 0.0% qoq annualized, from -0.1% in the first preliminary estimate.

On the other hand, private housing investment, public fixed investment, exports, and imports were each revised downward.

Revision to inventory investment, which was a major factor of fluctuation in the first preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP, was minimal. The contribution from private inventories was a positive +1.2 pp annualized (first preliminary estimate: +1.1 pp) due to stagnant shipments at various points in the supply chain, and the contribution

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from public inventories was a significant negative of -2.1 pp (unchanged from the first preliminary estimate) reflecting the release of national crude oil reserves.

April-June 2026 GDP Revision QOQ annualized growth % Contribution (pp) Prelim Revised Change Prelim Revised Change Real GDP 1.1 1.4 0.3 +1.1 +1.4 0.3 Consumption -0.1 0.0 0.1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0 Capex - Housing investment - Government consumption 6.7 6.9 0.2 +1.3 +1.3 0.0 Public fixed investment -0.4 -1.8 -1.4 +0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Inventory Private (contribution) +1.1 +1.2 0.1 Inventory Public (contribution) -2.1 -2.1 0.0 Exports 2.1 1.6 -0.5 +0.5 +0.4 -0.1 Imports -6.0 -6.5 -0.5 +1.4 +1.5 0.1 Private sector demand 0.1 0.6 0.5 +0.1 +0.4 0.3 Public sector demand - Net Export -- -- +1.8 +1.8 0.0 Nominal GDP 4.8 5.5 0.7

Tomohiro Ota Yuriko Tanaka Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.