JPM Asia Semis Key takeaway

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2026

Asia Semis Key takeaways from Semicon Taiwan

We completed our Semicon Taiwan Tour, meeting 22 companies as well as Technology and Telecoms attending the wider Semicon Taiwan event last week. Key highlights: Gokul Hariharan AC ( Leading edge capacity shortage likely to worsen in 2027: Based on our industry J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. conversations at Semicon, it appears that the leading edge foundry capacity Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited shortage will likely worsen in 2027, with the N3 demand-supply gap likely to Jerry Tsai AC widen, despite TSMC adding more N3 capacity. We estimate that the unfulfilled ( N3 demand this year is close to 600k wafers in 2026, but this could widen further in 2027, based on our initial conversations with the supply chain. Key demand J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited drivers are: (1) a steep NVDA N3 ramp for Rubin/ Vera, with NVDA taking up Jimmy Huang AC 55-60% of total N3 wafers in 2027, up from less than 10% in 1H26; (2) strong CPU ( ramp, with NVDA Vera, Google Axion 2, Amazon Graviton 5, and MSFT Cobalt J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited 200 all using N3, with a lot of unfulfilled demand slipping into 2027; (3) steady upside in ASIC shipments for TPU v8 (Mediatek, Broadcom) and Trainium 3 Jennifer Hsieh ( (Alchip, Annapurna); and (4) increasing networking attach, with most networking and XPU attach chips migrating to N3. Even with TSMC adding ~40% N3 capacity J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited (mainly Fab 18 P9 and some output from Fab 21 P2 in AZ), the shortage is unlikely David Chou to ease materially in Advanced packaging investments broadening out, with a focus on CoWoS in J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

2027 and SoIC in 2028: Capex for advanced packaging is now starting to come Jason Chen through from various OSAT vendors, rather than just TSMC. ASE and Amkor are ( the leaders in capacity expansion, but we are also starting to see sub-contracting J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited orders likely going to PTI, Xintec and other packaging vendors, given the extreme Subham Singhania shortage of clean-room space and high demand. In our estimate, TSMC’s CoWoS ( capacity by end-27 could reach ~190-200k wfpm with limited room for meaningful upside now due to longer equipment lead times. Leading OSAT J.P. Morgan India Private Limited capacity could reach ~100k wfpm (likely 60% ASE, 30% Amkor), while smaller Josie Yu OSATs may also start contributing some capacity in late 2027 for subcontracting ( on-substrate and full process orders due to customer demand overflow. Looking J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited into 2028, we expect SoIC to become the primary focus of investment at TSMC, given NVDA Feynman is likely to start using 3DSoIC for GPU-GPU stacking (A16 on A16 dies likely), which should require a significant jump in 3DSoIC capacity (we expect 65k wfpm 3DSoIC capacity by end 2028).

CoPoS development seems slower, EMIB-T progressing with variants being explored in the supply chain: TSMC’s CoPoS progress appears to be tracking somewhat slower than expected, with current expectations only for risk production in 2028, with earliest mass production being pegged for 2029. Our checks indicate that there are still several engineering challenges (warpage, glass cracking, etc) that need to be resolved before the process can move into meaningful mass production. Feedback from OSATs such as ASE who are pursuing CoPoS-like PLP technologies also appears to be similar, in our view. At the same time, EMIB-T seems to be showing steady progress, even with the concerns of substrate yield and process flow details among various participants still being finalized. In addition to TPUv9 Humufish, we expect some volume from AWS Trn4 to also be using the EMIB-T packaging in the 2028 timeframe. Key EMIB-T equipment players in Taiwan are All Ring Tech and Scientech. Lastly, we believe that there are several

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Gokul Hariharan AC Asia Pacific Equity Research ( September 2026 JPMORGAN

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