JPM Semiconductors July

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 08 September 2026

Semiconductors July WSTS: Seasonal M/M Downtick Skewed by Memory Lumpiness; Industry Sales Outlook Now > $1.7T in 2026 and >$2T in 2027

The WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) released its latest set of Semiconductors & Semiconductor industry data late last week, showing that total industry sales fell to $142B (-10% Capital Equipment / IT Hardware M/M) in July, with Y/Y growth decelerating to +129% Y/Y, down from +143% Harlan Sur AC Y/Y in June. The weakness in sales was primarily ASP-driven, with blended ( industry ASPs declining -9% M/M, and total industry unit volumes remaining ~flat

M/M. The M/M decline in sales was directionally in-line with seasonal trends and Apoorva Kumar heavily skewed by monthly lumpiness in memory sales (total semiconductor sales ( ex-memory were ~flat M/M). We would also separately flag that company commentary across our sector over the last ~90 days points to demand continuing Mayur Ramdhani ( to accelerate from current levels, and thus we contend that fundamentals will likely follow suit. Our key takeaways from the latest set of data are as follows: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• The M/M decline in July was in-line with seasonal norms… Historically, semiconductor sales tend to decline -8% M/M in the month of July, which should partly contextualize the -10% M/M decline in the Jul-26 data. That said, the decline was slightly larger than expected due to greater month-over-month lumpiness in memory, with total industry sales ex-memory remaining ~flat M/ M, versus total industry sales including memory being down -10% M/M.

• Prior-month data revised higher, reflecting stronger memory data points… While it isn’t unusual for the WSTS to revise prior-month data, we would flag that aggregate industry sales for Jun-26 were revised ~4% higher to $157B, up from the $152B figure that was initially reported. Memory data points for June were adjusted meaningfully, with DRAM and NAND sales both being revised ~6% higher, further illustrating the strong and durable underlying economic setup across the memory space.

• Memory pricing growth decelerated but remains objectively strong… Memory revenues fell to $78.6B in July (down from a record $94.0B in June), driven by weaker bit shipments and partially offset by stronger pricing. For context, DRAM and NAND bit shipments fell -23% M/M and -22% M/M, while ASPs grew +6% M/M and +9% M/M, respectively. When viewed on a Y/Y basis, pricing trends decelerated, with DRAM ASPs growing +259% Y/Y (down from +268% Y/Y growth in June) and NAND ASPs growing +344% Y/Y (down from +368% Y/Y growth in June). Upon updating our industry model, we now see the industry growing to $1.73T (+118% Y/Y; +32% Y/Y ex-memory) in 2026 and >$2T in 2027. However, there is likely upside risk to our estimates, as we conservatively assume seasonal growth across all major product categories (ex-memory, where our team uses a more granular, bottom-up approach). All told, despite the M/M downtick in the data, we believe that underlying fundamentals and Y/Y growth trends remain highly constructive, and we continue to view compute (NVDA, AVGO, AMD, INTC, MRVL), memory (MU, SNDK), networking (AVGO, MRVL, ALAB), and industrial analog (TXN, ADI, MCHP) as the most favorable verticals levered to the incremental growth in spending.

See page 10 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

Harlan Sur AC North America Equity Research ( September 2026 JPMORGAN

High-Level Industry Trends Figure 1: LTM Semiconductor Industry Sales ($B) 200

0 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26

Total Semi Sales Total Semi Sales (Ex-Memory)

Source: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), J.P. Morgan Research

Figure 2: LTM Semiconductor Shipment Volumes (mn units)

0 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26

Source: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), J.P. Morgan Research

Figure 3: LTM Blended Semiconductor ASPs ($/unit) $2.00

$1.48 $1.49 $1.50 $1.35 $1.25 $1.21 $1.19

$0.95 $0.94 $1.00 $0.89 $0.84 $0.78 $0.75 $0.68

$0.00 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25…