JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We remain our Tactically Cautious / Neutral stance ahead of CPI, unchanged WoW on Monetization Menu.

• MACRO UPDATES – US/Iran, CPI Setup and Fed views post NFP.

• POSITIONING INTEL – Weekly Wrap | Let the Re-Gross Begin?

• THE JPM VIEW – Full note is here; The team remains their mid-year outlook view that slow and gradual hiking would not derail the fundamentally supportive macro backdrop into year-end.

• ROADMAP TO Q4 – Flagging key events for US markets into quarter’s end and offering thoughts on the Bull and Bear outcomes for each event

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.3%, RTY -0.4%. WTI +221bps at $95.09, NatGas -123bps to $2.88, UK NatGas +376bps to £1.9590, Gold +89bps to $4,395, Silver +104bps to $66.43, 10Y @ 4.808%, and VIX @ 16.04.1

• US: Futs are lower. Pre-market, Mag 7 were mixed: META +1.7% (after launching its Muse AI agent) while AMZN -0.4%. Bond yields added 1-3bp this morning led by the belly of the curve; USD was unchanged. Commodities were mostly higher with WTI surging above $95 (Brent hits $100 a barrel for the first time since July 24); precious metals and ags are all higher.

• EU/UK: Major markets are lower. Thematically, Electrification, Luxury, Semi and Ceasefire were among the most underperforming baskets. UKX -0.5%, SX5E -1.4%, SXXP -1.0%, DAX -1.0%.

• US MACRO DATA: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8.15am ET.

• US EARNINGS: AEO, ASO, AVAV, CHWY, CNM, COO, JMKE, NAVN, SAIL, SUNB

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Japan) Machine Tool Orders at 2am ET. (France) IP at 2.45am ET. (UK) RICS House Price Balance at 7.01pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Last week, the SPX/RTY were mostly unchanged flat and NDX added +0.4%. WTI surged nearly 10% last week as US and Iran resumed attacks. 2y and 10y yields rose 3bp and 6bp last week, respectively. The main drivers for the bond market are NFP and Fedspeaks (Warsh at the G20 and Waller). Thematically, Memory, Renewable, Autos and Banks were among the top performing baskets last week, while AI vulnerable baskets (Software, Alternative Managers) lagged. Momentum L/S pair added 2.5%; Cyclicals added 2.1%.

• YESTERDAY’S PRICE ACTIONS – [From September 8th Afternoon Briefing] Two main drivers of price actions yesterday: Middle East and AI. First, on the Middle East escalation, the main headlines today were the Houthis’ attack on Saudi and US strikes on Iranian targets near Kharg Island; WTI added 1.7% to $93.03; 2y and 10y yields were 3bp and 1bp higher, respectively. Airlines, housing and consumer were among the top underperformers. On AI, OpenAI’s Astra release drove another move higher across AI compute bottleneck trades: SOXX added 1.6%; software fell 2.3%. Outside these two themes, trade war tensions also further escalated: there is still no trade deal between US and Canada after the retaliatory tariffs; Trump said he would seek to bar Canadian companies from selling to government contractors.