JPM Europe Equity Research | Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 13 August 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting | | UK life insurance (Farooq Hanif)

Relative value shifts to Aviva – upgrading Aviva to OW, downgrading L&G and M&G to UW

We upgrade Aviva to OW, downgrade Legal & General and M&G to UW, and reiterate our OW on Standard Life. Factors including corporate restructuring and M&A-speculation have led UK life insurers to outperform SXIP / FTSE100 index by 2ppts / 6ppts YTD. Aviva is the exception: it has lagged and de-rated versus its peers, and we believe it now offers attractive relative upside potential. Cash flow and capital returns is where the relative value debate on these stocks is clearest, with IFRS earnings a poor guide to free cash. We analyse the Solvency II operational capital generation (OCG) that may be returned to shareholders without eroding Solvency II ratios – or ‘economic OCG’– as a proxy for FCF. Aviva and Standard Life are generating better FCF yields on this basis than L&G or M&G, with superior capital return potential and dividend cover. Two additional debates reinforce our views: rising competition and weaker new business margins in the UK PRT (Pension Risk Transfer) market, to which L&G is most geared, while UK retail general insurance pricing trends are stabilising / turning more positive, supporting Aviva.

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( August 2026 JPMORGAN

Company Research Demant A/S (David Adlington) (DEMANT DC, OW)

Risk-reward still to the upside – we can see another 12-24% upside from here

AFL | Ferrovial (Elodie Rall) (FER SM, OW)

AFL | Ferrovial (Elodie Rall) (FER SM, OW)

July TomTom: Sequentially weaker traffic; down 13% y/y

Fraport (Elodie Rall) (FRA GR, OW)

PANDORA (Chiara Battistini) (PNDORA DC, N)

Salzgitter (Dominic O'Kane) (SZG GR, OW)

Q2’26 results wrap: Q2 divisional mixed; spread backdrop remain supportive into Q2 & HKM consolidation within JPM base case; Stay OW (PT: €64/sh)

TUI Group (Karan Puri) (TUI1 GR, OW)

Model update post Q3: Broadly unchanged rev/EBIT estimates; PT to €12.2 (vs prior €12.5) on higher net debt

Vestas (Akash Gupta) (VWS DC, OW)

Post Q2 wrap: The bull case a year ago now becomes our base case; PT goes to Dkr295

Sector Research EU Hotels (Estelle Weingrod)