JPM Flows Liquidity

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 16 September 2026

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Flows & Liquidity How much upward pressure on global bond yields from tech bond issuance?

Global Markets Strategy Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou AC • While there has been an increase in the duration impulse of corporate ( issuance, in the context of overall net issuance of bonds globally the $260bn increase in net bond issuance by tech companies for 2026 looks J.P. Morgan Securities plc manageable and on our calculations it would put perhaps 10-15bp of Mika Inkinen upward pressure on Global Agg bond index yields. ( • Similar to April 2024, this month’s weakness in equity fund flows is likely J.P. Morgan Securities plc to prove short lived. Mayur Yeole • Momentum signals reach more extreme territory for 10y Bunds and 10y ( OATs vs. Bunds. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited • While we recognize that other factors might also affect the bitcoin and gold Krutik P Mehta trajectories going forward, from a positioning point of view, the more ( elevated short interest in the IBIT vs. GLD ETF could create more support for bitcoin vs gold from here if hedging demand is reduced. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Cross Asset Fund Flow Monitor Cross Asset Positioning Monitor Current level shows the latest percentile of weekly flows; Min is denoted by 0 and Max by 1. As of 9th Sept 26. Current level shows the latest percentile, Min is denoted by 0 and Max by 1.

Source: J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity. Cross Asset Positioning Monitor aggregates across the various position indicators of Appendix ranging from positioning proxies across various futures contracts, momentum signals as proxies of how trend-following funds/ CTAs are positioned, mutual fund betas as proxies of how mutual fund managers are positioned, risk parity fund positioning and leverage proxies, hedge fund betas as proxies of how hedge fund managers are positioned, client surveys, asset allocation estimates of private non-bank investors at global level, short interest indicators, etc.

Source: Lipper, ICI, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity. * US LL historical flows are monthly averages converted to weekly for comparison. China onshore A-share ETFs have been excluded.

See page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou AC ( Mayur Yeole ( Global Markets Strategy JPMORGAN Flows & Liquidity J.P. Morgan Securities plc J.P. Morgan India Private Limited 16 September 2026 Mika Inkinen ( Krutik P Mehta ( J.P. Morgan Securities plc J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• The question of supply of AI related debt and whether it Figure 1: Notional outstanding amounts in US Agg Treasury and is putting upward pressure on bond yields has been a reg- corporate indices in 10y UST equivalent terms ular feature in our conversations. In a sense, it is related to In $tr. the question of how much of the rise in real bond yields 12 has been related to a re-assessment of long-term growth prospects on greater optimism for productivity growth 10 Corporate Treasury from these investments vs. term premia we looked at last week (F&L, Sep 9th), but from a flow perspective. We 8 focus below on the bond issuance component, given that the duration impulse from leveraged loans and private 6 credit is typically rather modest. 4 • One way to put the increases in supply into context is to take a holistic approach and look at the duration impulse 2 embedded in the evolution of the stock of outstanding bonds. To do this, we look at the notional outstanding stock of bonds in the US Agg and EuroAgg indices, split by corporate and government bonds. We then convert Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity. them to 10y equivalents by multiplying the stock of notional outstandings with the ratio of the duration of the • Figure 2 shows the same breakdown for the EuroAgg cor- E T B N A m q 0 1 p v y g d u n…