JPM global macro conf

J P M O R G A N Strategic Research 16 September 2026

Two things are still true at the same time Highlights from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Global Macro Conference

A central message was straightforward: duration pain coexisting alongside Chair of Global Research equity gains, at least for now. This was a consistent theme among the 15 macro Joyce Chang AC and market speakers offering their views on the US outlook and Fed policy, AI ( investment and productivity impact, as well as the implications of geopolitical risks and the US midterm elections, a view that we have highlighted over the past Strategic Research year (see Top 10 Macro Takeaways: 2025 IMF/World Bank Fall Meetings: Two Amy Ho AC things can be true at the same time…but will it last?, 22 Oct 2025, Shaky Optimism: ( Short-term tailwinds, long-term risks: Highlights from JPMorgan’s 2025 Global Macro Conference, 24 Nov 2025, and Winner-Takes-All meets Multipolarity, 9 Mohammed Hossain AC Sep). AI-led capex and resilient earnings remain the core equity support, while ( deficits, issuance, and term premia keep upward pressure on long-end yields. The

mood stayed risk-on, and our investor survey suggests conviction remains high to Zahin Ov AC ( stay invested in the S&P 500 even as rates are biased higher. Equity Strategy and Global Thematic Fed hikes are now the consensus, but a key structural shift is that comparisons Research to prior hiking cycles are increasingly less informative as higher policy rates are not transmitting to the US real economy with the same force as they Kamal Tamboli AC ( historically have. With AI, healthcare, and services now a larger and relatively rate-insensitive share of growth and capex, the traditional interest-rate channel J.P. Morgan Securities LLC looks materially less binding, and Fed policy changes are having less impact on corporate behavior than in past cycles. Several speakers argued that the equity- breaking threshold for Treasury yields may therefore be meaningfully higher than previously, potentially in the 5.5%-6.0% range, particularly as both the interest- rate and oil-price channels appear less constraining for the corporate investment cycle. At the same time, real yields are historically attractive, creating a clear opportunity to invest in high-quality fixed income.

Separately, speakers emphasized that a higher term premium is structural and that inflation is expected to remain above target. Even if AI is driving a high productivity regime, the labor market remains weak. Geopolitics and US midterm election risks may be underpriced, and oil prices could remain elevated through 1H27. The discussion on AI has broadened to include the two-sided risks. While there is greater conviction on productivity tailwinds, there is rising concern that safety, cyber risks, and fraud are driving defensive investment costs, while making self-regulation an unstable endpoint. Construction of AI data centers is also fueling a bipartisan backlash. “Affordability” is emerging as a durable political constraint, as distributional tensions and labor disruption were building even before the AI boom.

The summary below represents key highlights from speakers featured at the 2026 Global Macro Conference held in New York on September 10, 2026, which was conducted under Chatham House rule. Therefore, the commentary below does not necessarily coincide with the opinions of J.P. Morgan research analysts.

See page 25 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

Joyce Chang AC ( Mohammed Hossain AC ( Strategic Research JPMORGAN Two things are still true at the same J.P. Morgan Securities LLC time Amy Ho AC ( Zahin Ov AC ( September 2026

Top 10 Takeaways: S&P 500 Up, US Treasury Yields Up – Both Can Coexist (for Now) 1. Two high-conviction views can coexist: Equities and Treasury yields can rise at the same time. The S&P 500 still has upside even if long-end yields move higher; corporate earnings are less rate-sensitive than in prior cycles and rate-sensitive sectors are not driving the business investment cycle. 2. The long-end sell-off is global and structural: Deficits, issuance and term premium are the drivers. Persistent deficits and heavier issuance keep term…