JPM International Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

20 SECONDS: Busy week. Supportive macro positive for EU Industrials. Debasement is back. UST safety premium has eroded. JPM Bullish on Asia Memory and EU Semis.

• Stocks lower ahead of a busy week. Jackson Hole; the US Fiscal Consolidation plan and the suite of financial measures targeting Iran; NVDA & MRVL earnings; ECB minutes; Anthropic S1 (maybe) etc. Phyisical AI weak even with robots now running faster than Usain Bolt.

• Oil is lower as 16m barrels moved out of the SoH on Friday night while Iran's leaders are growing more vocal about economic toll from war

• The big picture remains supportive and JPM Econ continues to see a cyclical lift to above-trend growth as broadening in business spending includes a pickup in hiring.

• This backdrop has a positive read for EU industrials which already benefit from the region’s increased emphasis on security, resiliency, and strategic autonomy.

• Within Secular themes, there has been a return of the policy unpredictability/debasement trade (DXY lower, Gold & Crypto higher) which we continue to express via Gold and Miners.

• The QE-lite framing of buybacks is flawed but the underlying fundamental issues are real. The UST safety premium vs close substitutes — AAA corporates and G10 sovereigns — has eroded (Charts below). That helps explain the sensitivity to fiscal developments abroad and jitters around financing of the AI buildout.

• Several AI-related developments out over the weekend: Nvidia price hikes and open-weight model plans; BABA’s equity raise; GPT 5.6 Sol price cut; signs of tepid demand for Anthropic’s Fable 5 (talked about here) and some interesting analysis on Open vs Closed models (Charts below)

• JPM Analysts remain bullish on Asia Memory and EU Semis. Our view has broadening and dispersion across Tech.