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• Geopol escalation drove Brent above $100, as Trump considers a “massive attack” (escalate to de- escalate?). Global rates selloff (UST 10y >4.7%), weighed on equities. APAC ‘catching down’ to overnight weakness this morn, while EU/US futures hold steady. • Natasha is out with a new note on oil markets: the team estimates each additional month of disruption adds roughly $7-8/bbl to Brent. Meanwhile, European Commission unveiled its Electrification Action Plan which aims to reduce the EU’s dependence on fossil fuels by setting an indicative 46% electrification target by 2040 • Key risk is that rates remain elevated and we see another episode similar to mid-May (rates = MOMO kryptonite). Despite weak price action across equities, MOMO held up yesterday, supported by shorts underperformance on Geopol concerns. But Tech weakness remains a key theme: AI Capex Spenders saw -2zs selloff and GOOG’s capex raise was not enough to drive a broad rally across Capex Beneficiaries (Memory higher but Semis down). • Mislav is out with his updated Earnings Tracker: earnings growth is coming in better than expected (+23% y/y in the US, and +22% y/y in Europe), implying a positive surprise factor of 13% and 2% - despite already elevated projections. Notably, beats are not being rewarded in the US: 1d median perf for SPX co’s beating EPS estimates -0.4% vs 1.4% for SXXP, charts below. • ECB kept rates on hold yesterday. Our economists expect another hike in Sept, with risks skewed towards a Dec move. Our rates strategists note front-end valuations look stretched with a cumulative 70bp of hikes priced by next June, but recent escalation keeps uncertainty high. • US announced new tariff measures overnight, with 10-12% import taxes (issued under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974) applied – broadly consistent with where tariff levels already were. • Catalysts: Flash July PMIs today; key catalysts next week (full list below) incl. FOMC, BOE & BOJ Rate Decisions; China Industrial Profits & PMIs; US GDP, PCE. EU GDP & CPI. Tech reporters incl. Mag7 (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META), SK Hynix, Samsung. Main reporting sectors in Europe: Banks, Industrials (incl. Defence), Healthcare.