JPM Retail Radar Aug 12

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 12 August 2026

Retail Radar Aug 12 – From Earnings to Macro

Retail Trading Activity Overview Equity Strategy and Quantitative Research

• Retail flows rebounded to 64%ile from 4%ile last week, but unlike prior Arun Jain AC months, Tech ex-Mag 7/Memory no longer appeared to be the main driver ( of activity. Instead, retail attention shifted towards macro: precious metals J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ETFs continued to attract inflows this week after an extended period of Shizuka Suga, CFA AC subdued interest, Figure 5, alongside renewed demand for inflation ETFs. This o n M w T E F P d h g litIfrsecak u y W

( repositioning coincided with soft jobs and CPI prints, which “take hiking pressure away from the Fed, reducing the chances of a September move” J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (see The J.P. Morgan View). Overall, the single-stock selling streak broke last Ana Pous Avila Thursday; single-name flows turned positive at ~74%ile for the week, while ( ETF flows were close to their median levels. Activity was strongest on Monday J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (88%ile), with single-name inflows at 93%ile, before it steadily faded through Wednesday, Figure 17. D R T E F S P d k h u y o v tilIrfseacn William Matheson ( • ETF flows rotated from Sector/Tech into Commodities, which became the second most-bought ETF category after broad-based index trackers, while J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Tech ETFs flows were nearly flat. The shift was largely gold-led, with Khuram Chaudhry particularly strong demand on Monday (2.5z on the day, Figure 6). Activity in m D G R C L n b v ltiIaecu ( gold also extended beyond pure commodities ETFs: gold miners’ GDX J.P. Morgan Securities plc attracted sizable inflows (2.9z, Figure 8). Inflation-linked ETFs likewise R b ltiIaecu v m X D G C n

Bhupinder Singh AC received increased interest after Chairman Warsh’s hawkish tone surprised ( markets last week (e.g. STIP: 4.7z, VTIP: 1.7z, Figure 10). Lastly, dividend m R C T P S n b v ltiIaecu

ETFs have remained in demand, with SCHD at 89%ile; these flows align with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC our Dividend Yield Crowding metric, which has been steadily rising since Dubravko Lakos-Bujas AC October and is now around the 77%ile, Figure 11. Y g o n d .iltreav ~ 7 C D w %

( • Single-stock activity was concentrated in the Mag 7 + SPCX, while broder J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Tech lost traction. Mag-7 flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of MSFT, which is still seeing moderate profit-taking after its post- Past Issues: earnings surge. Retail investors briefly shifted to a more cautious stance on ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 8/5 - Hyperscaler Earnings Lift Sentiment SNDK after the stock sold off on Thursday and Friday following softer-than- 7/29 - Momentum Unwind, Cutting Tech Losses expected guidance, leaving it as the most sold retail name of the week (-1.3z), 7/22 - Momentum Cooldown, Hyperscaler Earnings 7/15 - Trading Earnings as Flows Cool even as modest inflows resumed on Monday. MU, meanwhile, plateaued 7/8 - Split-the-Dip as Momentum Cools (0.1z). Looking more closely across the Tech complex, activity in Semis has 7/1 - Same Playbook, Buying the Dip broadly stabilized (NVDA: 0.5z, AMD: 0.6z, ASML: 0.7z), while in Software 6/24 - Remembers the Dip, MU Serves Right 6/17 - Tech Craze Spillover to Communications and Hardware it has reverted to roughly flat after the prior week’s sharp 6/10 - Tech Selling amidst Drawdown, World Cup dislocation, which featured strong inflows into Hardware alongside record 6/3 - MEME Earnings, Trading around IPOs 5/27 - Theme Stack: AI, Memory, Space, Quantum outflows in Software, report. 5/13 - Software vs Semis Positioning 5/6 - Memory and AI, the Catch-Up Trade Factor Crowdings and Rotations: Momentum Update 4/29 - Peak Earnings, Peak Mag-7 4/22 - Towards a MEME Revival? 4/15 - Back to Average 4/8 - Not Buying Despite the Ceasefire • The July momentum unwind was followed by a brief reprieve, retreating 4/1 - In Defensive Mode back to its July 29 levels by Tuesday (see Momentum crowding, Figure 1). n u d g C w m M .tireo

3/25 - Selling Rips The…