JPM Retail Radar Oct

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 08 October 2026

Retail Radar Oct 7 – Seasonally stronger, Tech back in focus

Business Cycle, Momentum and Earnings Equity Strategy and Quantitative Research

• Last week’s retail flows were punctuated by hesitation, with sentiment Arun Jain AC showing meager signs of improvement as attention slowly turns to the 3Q ( earnings season. The S&P 500 reached record highs on Tuesday, only to re- J.P. Morgan Securities LLC evaluate the next day as market participants weighed rising yields, geopolitical Shizuka Suga, CFA AC risk and fluctuating oil prices against resilient macro fundamentals—our ( business cycle continues to show strength, lifted by its growth component, see US Business Cycle. As we enter October, the weakest period for retail J.P. Morgan Securities LLC seasonality appears to be behind us, Figure 1. The data so far supports Q tilrsJeaco n y p g u d k 3 S R w

Ana Pous Avila historical patterns: flows have rebounded from September lows, returning ( to their 12-month average levels. The improvement was driven by ETF J.P. Morgan Securities LLC flows, which recovered from depressed levels to a healthier 32%ile. Meanwhile, single-name flows increased modestly amid inconsistent William Matheson ( positioning —alternating between buying and selling—closing the week at the 43%ile, Figure 13.k h tilIrfseacn v o y D R T E F S P d u

• Retail investors appear to have regained their appetite for Tech: inflows Khuram Chaudhry into Tech Sector ETFs climbed to their 73%ile, a steady increase from the ( %ile four weeks ago, Figure 2; inflows into the Mag 7 remained resilient, d n b v o h tilrfseacu R E T F P

J.P. Morgan Securities plc while flows into Tech ex Mag 7 strengthened, led by SNDK and MU (3rd and Bhupinder Singh AC 4th most bought stocks last week, respectively). Overall, retail investors were ( net buyers across Tech—not only Semis and Hardware, but this time also favoring Software. Within the realm of AI, SPCX was reported to raise $40B J.P. Morgan Securities LLC to buy chips from NVDA; as the stock soared 15% last week, retail investors Dubravko Lakos-Bujas AC continued to trim their sizeable SPCX holdings after building a substantial ( position following the company’s IPO, with the pace of selling slowing in October, Figure 57. ltiIaecu v b n S P C R X m J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• More generally, ETF flows rebounded across categories, Figure 22, y b til()seacv m h $ F E T R B A

Past Issues: including Broad-Based, Style and Fixed Income ETFs, with the exception of ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 9/30 – Weak Sentiment, Record Tilt to TLT Commodity and Crypto ETFs. International ETFs only saw minimal 9/23 - Muse, SOXX, MTUM, Rates Sensitivity activity overall, despite volatile developments in France and Brazil: 1) 9/16 – Retail Blinks as Rates Swing 9/9 – Retail Reassesses Rates, Short-Term Although there is no direct French OAT play via US listed ETFs, retail Momentum Rotates investors accelerated their selling of IGOV (-3.0z, Figure 3; IGOV’s allocation m V O G R n tilIeacb

9/2 – Energy over Software, Precious Metals over to French bonds is the 2nd largest behind Japan). According to the J.P. Morgan Miners 8/26 - Earnings, Semis and Rates View, French bond weakness—and selective intra-EMU spread contagion— 8/19 – Duration to Dividend appears less about 2027 fiscal/political uncertainty and more about a technical 8/12 – From Earnings to Macro 8/5 - Hyperscaler Earnings Lift Sentiment unwind of long-held carry trades and real-money hedging, with buyers 7/29 - Momentum Unwind, Cutting Tech Losses stepping back amid elevated volatility; 2) Retail investors took profits as EWZ 7/22 - Momentum Cooldown, Hyperscaler Earnings 7/15 - Trading Earnings as Flows Cool rallied +13% on Monday, Figure 5, as Flavio Bolsonaro overtook Lula in the tilIeacb n E Z R m W

7/8 - Split-the-Dip as Momentum Cools first round of the Brazilian election, report. Our strategists believe the index 7/1 - Same Playbook, Buying the Dip 6/24 - Remembers the Dip, MU Serves Right could move to a gain of 20% in the short term, with the fwd PE re-rating by 6/17 - Tech Craze Spillover to…