JPM US Focus Jackson Hole

Michael S Hanson ( North America Economic Research JPMORGAN JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 21 August 2026

US Focus: Limited action and there have been a few of those speeches more recently.

from Jackson Figure 1: Change in 2y yields around Jackson Hole speeches bp, Thu close to Fri close. Dashed lines are ±1 std. dev. No Chair in 2013 or 2015 While the Fed chair’s opening remarks on the Friday morning 12 of the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium 9 regularly get market attention during late August, they often 6 3 aren't market moving. Indeed, as Figure 1 shows, big moves 0 in 2-year yields—which arguably is the part of the Treasury -3 yield curve most sensitive to signals about future monetary -6 policy—are the exception rather than the rule. The standard -9 deviation of daily changes in the 2y rate since 2000 is around - bp, so most of the changes are not unusually large. Source: Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan

The Fed chair’s opening speech typically addresses bigger Specifically, the after-effects of the pandemic forced then- picture issues for monetary policy—and, in earlier years, was Chair Powell to communicate sizable shifts in the Fed’s poli- closely tied to the Symposium’s theme itself. Table 1 below cy stance: first a commitment to fight inflation in 2022 and lists the topics of the chair’s speeches and market reaction to 2023, then a more accommodative stance in 2024. With Chair each over the past quarter century. The small number of times Warsh eschewing forward guidance, this year’s market that have featured discussions focused on the near-term path response could resemble the more muted Greenspan years. for policy likely are particularly salient to market participants,

Table 1: US 2-Year Treasury Yield Response to Jackson Hole Speeches (2000–2025) 1-Day yield changes (Pre-conference Thursday close to post-conference Friday close) Pre-Conf Post-Conf Net Chg Year Speaker Theme(s) of speech Yield (%) Yield (%) (bps) 2000 Alan Greenspan Globalization and international investment Alan Greenspan Wealth effects from financial and housing wealth 3.61 3.64 +3 2002 Alan Greenspan Economic volatility and equity market bubbles Alan Greenspan Economic uncertainty and risk management of policy 1.93 1.95 +2 2004 Alan Greenspan Economic impacts of an aging population Alan Greenspan Retrospective on monetary policy during Greenspan era 4.00 4.06 +6 2006 Ben Bernanke History of global economic integration Ben Bernanke Housing, housing finance, and monetary policy 4.08 4.15 +7 2008 Ben Bernanke Financial stability and supervisory oversight 2.33 2.42 +9 2009 Ben Bernanke Reflections on a year of crisis, policy response 1.03 1.13 +10 2010 Ben Bernanke Economic outlook and policy options for further easing 0.51 0.56 +5 2011 Ben Bernanke Near-term economic prospects, longer-run US growth Ben Bernanke Monetary policy since the onset of the crisis: QE, guidance None Bernanke did not attend Symposium 0.38 0.42 +4 2014 Janet Yellen Labor market dynamics and monetary policy 0.49 0.53 +4 2015 None Yellen did not attend Symposium 0.68 0.72 +4 2016 Janet Yellen The Fed's expanded policy toolkit 0.78 0.84 +6 2017 Janet Yellen Financial stability a decade after the crisis began 1.33 1.35 +2 2018 Jerome Powell Monetary policy and "shifting stars" 2.61 2.63 +2 2019 Jerome Powell Monetary policy challenges in historical context Jerome Powell Evolution of monetary policy, results of framework review Jerome Powell Monetary policy in the time of COVID; transitory inflation Jerome Powell Price stability: "taking forceful and rapid steps" 3.35 3.37 +2 2023 Jerome Powell Inflation progress, restrictive policy, risk management 4.98 5.03 +5 2024 Jerome Powell Rise and fall of inflation; downside risks to labor market Jerome Powell Framework review and evolution of consensus statement

Michael S Hanson ( North America Economic Research JPMORGAN US Focus: Limited action from JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Jackson 21 August 2026

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