JPM US Market Intell | Morning Briefing 2026 08 10

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF • US MKT INTEL VIEW – We update the Bull / Bear debate and are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu • ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS – We give color and views across Credit, earnings update, gold, macro data, and US / Iran • POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Lingering De-Grossing as HFs Remain Cautious in the US, while buying Hyperscalers. Note: there will not be a Weekly Wrap next week (Aug 14). • EM VIEWS & MONETIZATION – Ellen Wang & Victoria Campos share their Tactically Bullish view and Monetization Menu • MACRO READ-THRU FROM EARNINGS – Ellen walks through implications from her daily series • US MKT INTEL: CPI SCENARIO ANALYSIS – Feroli sees Headline MoM printing +0.12% and Core MoM printing +0.22%. This equates to 3.4% YoY for Headline and 2.5% YoY for Core.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES • SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.5%, RTY -0.1%. WTI +77bps at $78.78, NatGas +368bps to $2.76, UK NatGas +586bps to £1.4392, Gold +16bps to $4,348, Silver +107bps to $64.24, 10Y @ 4.650%, and VIX @ 15.43. • US: Futures are higher led by Tech with RTY starting the week in the red. Dubravko increases his YE26 SPX target to 8k as he sees earnings delivering $365/shr this year and $420/shr in FY27, +15% YoY. Bond yields are flat to +1bp as the yield curve twists flatter; USD trading higher following consecutive weekly declines. Cmdty space is led higher by Energy with MidEast headlines driving direction; Houthis targeting Saudi refineries after SA, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a new defense pact. Both Base and Precious are mixed with silver the standout, rallying with the AI theme. In Eqys, both Mag7 and Semis are higher with weakness in Memory, Software, and South Korea despite the rise in KOSPI overnight. Cyclicals are outpacing Defensives, including participation from Energy / Cmdtys names. There are no major econ releases today as the market preps for CPI and Retail

Sales, our Scenario Analysis is included. With earnings season almost completed, we are seeing the SPX trend towards 15% rev growth, 50% EPS growth, and almost 17% margins. • EU/UK: Major markets are mixed with Germany leading and the UK lagging. Yields are higher as most curves bear flatten. Top D1 baskets include Semis, Electricity, Renewables, and AI infra as Defensives, Bond Proxies, and Crowded Shorts are at the bottom. Thematically, Cyclicals / Momentum / Beta are leading with Quality / Value lagging. APAC session was led by JPN with HK / TW performing well. HSTECH outperformed SK / TW. UKX -0.4%, SX5E +0.3%, SXXP +0.0%, DAX +0.3%. CSI +0.2%, HSI +1.0%, NKY +2.1%, ASX -0.3%, KOSPI +0.7%.

CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD) • US MACRO DATA: N/A • US EARNINGS: AAON, ASTS, AXSM, BBIO, BKD, DJT, FERG, HIMS, KEEL, RKLB, SPG

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: [SUNDAY] – (Japan) BoP Current Account Balance and Trade Balance BoP Basis at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE Last week, the SPX added 3.6% for its best week since mid-April. NDX led with 5.1%, RTY was inline, with SPW lagged SPX by 122bp. The 10Y yield fell 8.9bp after making a 52-wk high on July 31; the 30Y yield fell 7.2bp and the DXY made its second consecutive weekly decline. Earnings improved WoW with SPX YoY revenue growth of 15%, earnings growth of 50%, and margins of 16.9% breaking the previous record of 14.8% set in 26Q1. Excluding AMZN / GOOG, earnings would still print ~32% with margins of 15%. AI is having an positive impact, with 25 SPX firms quantifying the impact and they are seeing, on average, ~150bp of margin improvement.

COUNTRY / BLENDED GROWTH RATE 2026 EXPECTATIONS INDEX REVENUE EARNINGS EARNINGS US / SPX 15% 50% 28% EU / SXXP 10% 23% 18% JPN / TOPIX 15% 40% 14%

GDP GROWTH INFLATION MKT P(HIKE) COUNTRY Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 AT NEXT US 1.5% 1.8% 3.8% 3.5% 44% EU 1.8% 1.5% 3.0% 3.1% 85% JAPAN 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 2.9% 66% Source: JPM Research; Bloomberg; FactSet; LSEG