JPM US Market Intelligence Afternoon Briefing Aug 11

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF • MKT UPDATES – Thoughts on US/Iran and macro data today; Thoughts into China Tech earnings (Tencent will report tmrw morning) and CPI tmrw. • DESK COMMENTARY – Trading desk views on TMT (including NVDA AI deal), Consumer and Healthcare. • US MKT INTEL: CPI SCENARIO ANALYSIS – Feroli sees Headline MoM printing +0.12% and Core MoM printing +0.22%. This equates to 3.4% YoY for Headline and 2.5% YoY for Core. • US MKT INTEL VIEW – We update the Bull / Bear debate and are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS) • SPX -0.3%, NDX -0.3%, RTY +0.3%. WTI +157bps at $83.42, NatGas -125bps to $2.76, UK NatGas -135bps to £1.4770, Gold -47bps to $4,370, Silver -148bps to $64.77, 10Y @ 4.690%, and VIX @ 15.28. • US: Stocks closed lower. Underlying price actions were actually a lot better than the index level, with 59% of the stocks actually closing higher on the day. Mag 7 underperformance mostly weighed on the index: without the declines in GOOG/L (-3.7%), AMZN (-2.1%), and AAPL (- 1.1%), SPX would have ended the day flat. Our JPM trader Brian Heavey pointed to (i) the unwinding of GOOG/L vs. META spread ahead of META’s watermelon model, and (ii) further digestion for AMZN and MSFT after the massive post-earnings moves. Footwear/Sportswear names were under pressure following ONON’s topline miss/cut. The uncertainties around US/Iran kept oil elevated (WTI crude at $83.39, a +1.6% 1D gain), but news flows were largely mixed. Hormuz reopening trades (Airlines, Housing) all outperformed amid a 1-2bp decline in yields. • EU/UK: Major markets closed mixed; Germany led and UK lagged. Thematically, Semi, Electrification, and Software are among the top performing baskets; Luxury lagged. Macro news

flows were largely muted, except for mixed headlines around the Middle East situation. UKX - 0.2%, SX5E +0.2%, SXXP +0.0%, DAX +0.3%.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR) • US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. CPI and Real Avg Hourly Earnings at 8.30am ET. Federal Budget Balance at 2pm ET. • US EARNINGS TOMORROW: CBRS, COHR, CSCO, EAT, EQPT, ERAS, FRVO, INFQ, LQDA, REZI, WYFI • GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Germany) CPI (revision) at 2am ET. (Japan) PPI at 7:50pm ET. (UK) RICS House Price Balance at 7:01pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

TODAY • US/IRAN – This morning, Pakistan’s defense minister said the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement” over the Strait of Hormuz (BBG). The headline helped stabilize the price actions after Trump’s escalatory rhetoric on Monday that demanded Iran pay reparations for those killed in attacks linked to the Islamic Republic and in domestic protests. However, the details of the Iran-Oman deal (Qatar said Oman-Iran talks reached an advanced stage earlier this morning) and progress on the US-Iran negotiations remain unclear. Iran said that Hormuz will remain shut until conditions are met. • MACRO DATA (NFIB SMALL BIZ SURVEY) – Overall, this morning’s NFIB Small Business survey (here) pointed to improved sentiment among small business owners in terms of both hiring plans and slower momentum in inflation. Some takeaways from this morning’s: (i) 36% of owners reported job opening they could not fill in the current period, highest since June 2025. Labor quality or availability becomes the single most important problem (27% vs. 19% prior vs. 12% historical average). (ii) the hiring plan was positive, with 20% of the owners plan to hire vs. 11% prior. (iii) some positive trend on inflat5on with net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell to 31% vs. 38% prior, after four consecutive increases. • THOUGHTS ON ETF FLOW (JONATHAN ROGERSON) – Some clear themes emerging on our pad over the last few sessions 1) strong Institutional demand for US Tech – yesterday we were a large real money buyer of VGT and have also seen demand for XLK 2) demand for midcaps (IWR, IJH, MDY) as well as REITs (IYR, VNQ, USRT) – this has been steady over the last week, customers citing strong Financials/cyclicals earnings performance 3) Supply in Intl/Intl