JPM US Market Intelligence Afternoon Briefing Aug 24

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF • MKT UPDATES – US/Iran, views on gold from JPM Commodities desk; Preview from JPM Specialist Josh Meyers on NVDA/MRVL Buyside Bar. • US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are Tactically Bullish, albeit with lower conviction, and we update the Monetization Menu.

AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS) • SPX -0.3%, NDX -1.0%, RTY -0.8%. WTI -238bps at $84.99, NatGas -69bps to $2.75, UK NatGas +342bps to £1.6814, Gold +108bps to $4,653, Silver -17bps to $68.88, 10Y @ 4.704%, and VIX @ 15.85. • US: Stocks closed lower but off the intraday lows. Underlying price actions were better than the index level, with 60% of the SPX names still closed higher. Today’s main themes were: (i) another sharp AI-led momentum drawdown and outperformance in Software led to another - 1.7% decline in Momentum; (ii) an oil pullback (WTI -3% to $84.98), which supports resilience in banks, retail, and travel. Overall, news flow was quite minimal as investors are waiting for NVDA and Jackson Hole later this week. Elsewhere on geopolitics, the US–Canada trade fight remained a macro overhang, but with the January 2027 deadline, it still leaves room for negotiation. Treasuries modestly flattened: 2-year was flat, while 30-year fell 4bp. • EU/UK: Major markets were mostly mixed; Spain/UK led and France lagged. Thematically, Consumer Recovery, Ceasefire, and Most Short were among the best performing baskets, while Defense and Semis lagged. The global tech pullback and geopolitics remained the main macro drivers. The European Commission on Monday approved a further €6.1 billion ($7.12 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine to procure new defense systems, per Reuters.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR)

• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8.15am ET. Philly Fed Non-Mfg Activity at 8.30am ET. FHFA House Price Index at 9am ET. Richmond Fed Mfg Index at 10am ET. • US EARNINGS TOMORROW: DKS, HET, INTU, SMTC, WSM, ZM, ZS • GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Japan) Leading Index CI (revision) at 1am ET. (Germany) GDP SA (revision) at 2am ET. (France) Consumer Confidence at 2:45am ET. (Germany) IFO Business Climate at 4am ET. (Japan) PPI Services at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

TODAY • US/IRAN – Key headlines today: (i) Bessent said the US is set to announce a fresh set of economic measures against Iran, which will impact Iran’s main trading partners such as China and India, as part of the “economic D-day” campaign; in response, Iran said the country is “fully prepared” for new US economic sanctions; (ii) the Houthis said they targeted a Saudi oil tanker, Amazan, in the Red Sea off Yanbu; (iii) over the weekend, Axios reported on X that around 16 million barrels of oil moved out of the Strait of Hormuz through the southern channel on Friday night. WTI and Brent fell 2.5% to $84.95 and $91.94, respectively. • THOUGHTS ON GOLD FROM COMMODITIES DESK – The Middle East backdrop remains opaque, and tariff headlines over the weekend have kept the macro risk premium elevated. With core PCE and Jackson Hole on deck this week, the pause in positioning is understandable. PCE will be particularly important. Research is looking for a relatively high print, and the market has so far been reluctant to fully price out a September Fed move—leaving rates sensitive to any upside inflation surprise and any shift in messaging from Jackson Hole. Trading think we trade in the $4,500/$5,000 range here, any hot data will see a retest of the 200dma. But on the contrary should we see cooler prints and the market is not convinced with the outcome of Jackson Hole, we might very well be trading closer to 5k next week. Given gold had gone $1,100 in 1 month in January, the desk doesn’t think that is outside the realm of possibility. Further, the negative data over the weekend hasn't really quenched the momentum in gold and we still trade decently higher on the day.

TMRW / LATER THIS WEEK • NVDA EARNINGS PREVIEW – The buyside bar below came from JPM TMT Specialist Josh Meyers (Aug 26 ~4:20pm ET, call 5pm)