JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• MKT THOUGHTS – Yesterday’s news / headlines were focused on the trade war, MidEast conflict, and Treasury Dept actions

• NVDA / MRVL PREVIEWS – Josh Meyers summarized the Research view and gives us color on client consensus and positioning

• DELTA-ONE FLOWS & POSITIONING – Bram tells us that Debasement/geopolitics boost commodities; broad sector outflows led by Financials; ETFs buy Canada & Treasuries, sell HY

• RATES SALES ON BESSENT USING TGA – Ryan Ward shares his thoughts

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – we are Tactically Bullish, albeit with lower conviction, and we update the Monetization Menu.

• ROADMAP TO Q4 – we flag the key events for US markets into quarter’s end and offer thoughts on the Bull and Bear outcomes for each event

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.5%, NDX +0.9%, RTY +0.7%. WTI -276bps at $82.66, NatGas -165bps to $2.74, UK NatGas -283bps to £1.6439, Gold -46bps to $4,631, Silver -156bps to $67.86, 10Y @ 4.678%, and VIX @ 15.74.

• US: Futures are higher, led by Tech, though Semis are leading pre-mkt, Memory, Mag7, Software, and Low/Unprofitable Tech are all higher, too. This is occurring with bond yields down 1-2bp as the curve see slight bull steepening with USD flat. In a WSJ Op-ed, Stan Druckenmiller gives his view on the likelihood that Bessent is making with intervention. In cmdtys, all 3 complexes are lower with Base Metals the bright spot; gold is outperforming broader Precious on the move lower. Returning to Eqys, NVDA and MRVL are higher by 1.2% and 2.8% as Semis are up ~2% and Memory +3.5%. NVDA is also leading Mag7 higher with 5 / 7 higher ex-AAPL, MSFT. The AI theme is boosting other sectors as Cyclicals ex-Energy lead Defensives. HC has a slight bid with Staples lower. Today’s macro data focus is on Housing Data, regional Fed activity indicators, weekly ADP, and Consumer Confidence.

• EU/UK: Major markets are all higher led by Germany and SMid-caps with UK lagging. Regional yield curves are seeing bull steepening as energy prices decline. Top D1 baskets include Electricity / Power, Semis, and short covering baskets all aligned with a bullish AI view. Alternatively, Oil, Luxury, and Freight Rate Sensitives are lower. Thematically, Beta / Momentum are leading, Value / Size are lagging; Cyclicals over Defensives. UKX +0.1%, SX5E +0.5%, SXXP +0.4%, DAX +0.6%. CSI -0.2%, HSI -0.0%, NKY +0.5%, ASX +0.7%, KOSPI +0.7%.

• US MACRO DATA: ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8.15am ET. Philly Fed Non-Mfg Activity at 8.30am ET. FHFA House Price Index at 9am ET. Richmond Fed Mfg Index at 10am ET. • US EARNINGS: DKS, HET, INTU, SMTC, WSM, ZM, ZS • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Japan) Leading Index CI (revision) at 1am ET. (Germany) GDP SA (revision) at 2am ET. (France) Consumer Confidence at 2:45am ET. (Germany) IFO Business Climate at 4am ET. (Japan) PPI Services at 7:50pm ET.