JPM US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

• MKT THOUGHTS – Energy, Positioning Tidbits, and Spending

• DELTA-ONE FLOWS & POSITIONING – Bram tells us that Semis outflows continue amid broad Tech demand; outflows from Discretionary/Financials and fiat ETFs, inflows to long- dated USTs; Managed Money buys Brent

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

• ROADMAP TO Q4 – we flag the key events for US markets into quarter’s end and offer thoughts on the Bull and Bear outcomes for each event.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX -0.5%, NDX -1.2%, RTY -0.3%. WTI +56bps at $84.97, NatGas +52bps to $2.70, UK NatGas +50bps to £1.5331, Gold -55bps to $4,392, Silver -127bps to $64.95, 10Y @ 4.726%, and VIX @ 15.96.

• US: Futures are lower, dragged by Tech, as the market reacts to rising bond yields from yesterday. Pre-mkt, yields are flat to +1 bp with the 30Y yield at its highest level since 2007. Yields seem to be reacting to a combination of energy prices, US’s deteriorating fiscal situation, elevated credit issuance, and BOJ/JPY dynamics which appear to be driving term premia higher. USD is flat. Cmdtys are higher led by Energy and Ags with Metals being sold. In

Eqys, Semis, Mag7, and Memory are under pressure; Software is bid. Things like DRAM and EWY appear to be overshooting relative to overnight price action. Defensives and Energy are leading as investors continue to de-gross / de-lever. Today’s macro data focus is weekly ADP, Import / Export prices, Housing Starts, Mfg measures, and Pending Home Sales. Tmrw’s Fed Minutes are likely more impactful as he bond market focuses on next week’s Jackson Hole mtg / Warsh speech.

• EU/UK: Major markets are lower with Spain / UK outperforming and Italy / SX5E lagging. Regional bond yields are higher as curves bear steepen. Top D1 baskets include Oil, AI Disruption, Software, and Defensives with Semis, Momentum Longs, and Power among the worst performers. Thematically, Quality / Value are leading, Momentum / Vol are lagging; Value over Growth; Defensives over Cyclicals. UKX -0.1%, SX5E -0.6%, SXXP -0.6%, DAX - 0.4%. CSI -0.3%, HSI +0.1%, NKY -2.5%, ASX -0.0%, KOSPI -1.5%.

• US MACRO DATA: ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8:15am ET. NY Fed Services Business Activity, Import Price, Export Price, Housing Starts, Building Permits at 8:30am ET. Industrial Production, Mfg Production, Capacity Utilization at 9:15am ET. Pending Home Sales at 10am ET. • US EARNINGS: HD, KEYS • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (UK) Average Weekly Earnings, ILO Unemployment at 2:00am ET. (Germany) ZEW Survey Expectations at 5:00am ET. (Eurozone) ZEW Survey Expectations at 5:00am ET. (Canada) Housing Starts at 8:15am ET. (Japan) Core Machine Orders at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Aside from headlines in the Middle East, there is no new news injected into the market. Bond yields remain high despite the recent macro data pointing to delayed, or potentially paused,