JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – we are Tactically Bullish, albeit with lower conviction, and we update the Monetization Menu.

• REPLAY – Intel Insights Conf. Call | Sales & Trading Views on Macro, Midterms, and Earnings Season Setup. Click HERE to access the replay.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.8%, RTY +0.3%. WTI -104bps at $90.54, NatGas -152bps to $3.12, UK NatGas -128bps to £1.9317, Gold +127bps to $4,185, Silver +202bps to $60.36, 10Y @ 5.251%, and VIX @ 15.24.

• US: Futures are firmer this morning led by Tech, with MegaCap largely rebounding (NVDA +1.9%, MSFT +1.0%, TSLA +1.1%) as yesterday’s OpenAI ARR miss is being re- framed as an account adjustment rather than a full demand reset. The notable outlier is AAPL (-1.9%) amid reports that the company is telling suppliers to cut orders given that the high costs is pressuring demand. Rates are moving higher again (2y and 10y are both 3bp higher this morning) ahead of CPI/PPI next week, while the USD is modestly softer. In commodities, WTI is down 1%, but gold (+1.2%) and silver (+2.0%) are bid as hedges; base metals are mostly weaker. Today, the key macro focus will be the U of Mich sentiment; DAL is expected to report earnings.

• EU/UK: Major markets are higher amid lower oil prices and the narrative shift in the OpenAI headlines. Thematically, Ceasefire, Software, AI Disruptions, UK Homebuilders and Luxury are among the top performing baskets. UKX +0.9%, SX5E +0.8%, SXXP +0.9%, DAX +1.1%.

• US MACRO DATA: U. of Mich. Sentiment/Expectations at 10am ET.

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Japan) Machine Tool Orders at 2am ET. (Canada) Net Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate at 8.30am ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Tech is rebounding so far this morning after a choppy Thursday. Most headlines are pointing to the reversal in the OpenAI narrative after the revenue miss headline yesterday: we have seen multiple news reports suggesting that the OpenAI revenue miss was more of an accounting adjustment than the actual expectation miss. This helps the most sold-off tech names to recover some of the losses, not fully, including a 1.9% rebound in NVDA. While the market may take a relief from the OpenAI narrative, yesterday’s price actions suggested that AI narrative remains imbalanced and vulnerable to headline risks. However, as we head into the earnings cycle, we expects earnings growth continued to support the broader cyclical complex with next week’s global CPI releases (Japan, China, US, and EU revisions) remaining the biggest near-term risks to assess inflation and rate hike path.

• FLOW COMMENTS FROM JPM TRADING DESK (MATT REINER) – Confidence is shot and High Touch trading volumes are a direct casualty, currently tracking-57% vs the 5dma – As a client aptly put it “I’m right one day, wrong the next.” It’s an overly complex tape where good ideas get punished and terrible ideas get rewarded all too frequently. More