JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – we are Tactically Bullish view and update the Monetization Menu

• ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS – 26Q3 Earnings Season, Bond Yields, an update on the Consumer, and Midterm Election color & D1 trade idea

• EMERGING MARKET & MONETIZATION – Ellen Wang and Victoria Campos share their views and EM Monetization Menus

• POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | HFs buy Banks and sell Semis, while EU Positioning Low vs. US

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.1%, NDX -0.1%, RTY +0.1%. WTI +119bps at $92.94, NatGas -252bps to $3.14, UK NatGas +231bps to £2.0723, Gold -57bps to $4,170, Silver -24bps to $60.68, 10Y @ 5.238%, and VIX @ 15.49.

• US: Futures are seeing a muted opening for the bond market holiday; USD is bid and commodities are stronger. WTI is higher as it appears the second Ukraine/Russia energy ceasefire is unlikely to hold and Trump’s deal to get Russian diesel receives bipartisan pushback. Pre-mkt, Tech is lagged with Semis / Memory lagging and Mag7 / Software leading both SPX and NDX. The AI theme is under slight pressure, Fins / Energy are bid, and the balance of sectors are flattish. There are no econ data releases but tmrw brings CPI

and Weds Retail Sales / PPI so this is another opportunity to reshape the yield curve as the market shifts its focus from macro to micro.

• EU/UK: Major markets are higher led by Spain / Italy with France lagging but positive. Global Tech struggled overnight / today with a tilt towards Value rather than Defensives, so EMEA stands to benefit should this trend continue. Defense, Ceasefire, Power plays are among the top D1 baskets. Thematically, Growth / Size are leading, Momentum / Value are lagging; Cyclicals over Defensives.

• UKX +0.6%, SX5E +0.4%, SXXP +0.4%, DAX +0.6%. CSI -0.7%, HSI +0.2%, NKY - 0.0%, ASX +0.8%, KOSPI -3.6%.

• US MACRO DATA: N/A; (OCT 12-18) IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting in Bangkok.

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Japan) CPI/PPI at 7.50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Last week, SPX added 1.2% outpacing both NDX, which closed at a record high +24bp, and RTY which lost 91bp. SPW outperformed SPX by 42bp and appears to be the better choice to RTY, for those playing the broadening theme; ~42% of RTY are unprofitable companies which tend to struggle in a higher rates environment. The 10Y yield fell 3.3bp on the week as the curve showed slight bull steepening; 2Y fell 3.8bp and 30Y fell 2.4bp. WTI gained $0.75 or 81bp on the week, helping commodities advance, as Gold continued its multi-week slide and Ags were flat. As we kick off this week with a bond market holiday and earnings, the market feels shakier than its index levels suggest given the poor breadth and concerns over high bond yields, the economic growth trajectory, and AI resilience.