JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• MKT THOUGHTS – Momentum, next steps, and US / Iran update

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

• ROADMAP TO Q4 – we flag the key events for US markets into quarter’s end and offer thoughts on the Bull and Bear outcomes for each event.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.0%, NDX -0.1%, RTY -0.1%. WTI +112bps at $85.89, NatGas +61bps to $2.79, UK NatGas -32bps to £1.5649, Gold +46bps to $4,355, Silver -46bps to $63.07, 10Y @ 4.696%, and VIX @ 15.86.

• US: Futures are flat but off their lows as Tech gets a boost from Hynix buyback, which erased ~8% decline to trade up as much as 2%; the ADRs are +5.6% pre-mkt boosting both Memory and Korea ETFs. Momentum looks to retrace some of yesterday’s losses. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp, following on from yesterday with USD weaker. Cmdtys are bid with all 3 complexes moving higher. In Eqys, Semis, Memory, and Mag7 are higher with Software and Low Profitable Tech weaker. Cyclicals and Defensives are both mixed as the market has not yet decided on direction. Today’s macro focus is on the 20Y bond auction, which is likely to need a concession per Jay Barry, and on the Fed Minutes where investors seek clarity on

the Fed’s reaction function in a tape that lacks significant catalysts. NVDA and Jackson Hole loom large.

• EU/UK: Major markets are mostly lower with APAC and EMEA ‘catching down’ to US moves, though APAC had a more dramatic move. Our best D1 baskets include energy, fiscal stimulus plays, and Cyclicals whereas Private Credit, WC Winners, and Software are among the weakest. Thematically, Cyclicals / Value are leading, ST Momentum / Yield Winners are lagging. UKX -0.1%, SX5E +0.1%, SXXP -0.1%, DAX -0.1%. CSI -2.9%, HSI +0.1%, NKY - 3.2%, ASX -0.2%, KOSPI -5.8%.

• US MACRO DATA: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm ET.. • US EARNINGS: ADI, EL, IOND, LOW, TJX, TGT, WOLF • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (UK) CPI/PPI and Retail Price Index at 2:00am ET. (Eurozone) CPI (revision) at 5:00am ET. (Japan) Trade Balance at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

There does not appear to be much of a read-through from yesterday’s sessions which appears to be driven by quant / systematic players. The Hynix move to buyback its stock highlights the spike in profitability being witnessed due to AI and may provide a steadying influence as we approach NVDA earnings. Memory demand remains robust with prices increasing, so the fundamentals are solid within the space. On Hynix, this comes from our colleague Thibault Sauvage:

• On our Analyst's FCF estimates I have Hynix returning to shareholders 15% of its market cap in 2028, and 34% of its market between 2026 and 2028.