JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing: Futs higher with AI Infra boosting Tech; Thoughts into CPI; CPI Scenario Analysis

• MKT THOUGHTS – General thoughts into today’s CPI print with the strong macro / micro background providing a bullish foundation for stocks.

• US MKT INTEL: CPI SCENARIO ANALYSIS – Feroli sees Headline MoM printing +0.12% and Core MoM printing +0.22%. This equates to 3.4% YoY for Headline and 2.5% YoY for Core.

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We update the Bull / Bear debate and are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.3%, NDX +0.7%, RTY +0.2%. WTI -56bps at $82.73, NatGas +87bps to $2.79, UK NatGas +98bps to £1.4563, Gold +98bps to $4,413, Silver +277bps to $66.47, 10Y @ 4.666%, and VIX @ 15.37.

• US: Futures are higher, led by Tech as AI infra earnings boost the theme while the Semis trade was bid overnight. The market has seen muted volumes this week into today’s CPI print, with PPI and Retail Sales tmrw, providing add’l details on the growth / inflation dynamic. Feroli sees Headline CPI MoM of +0.12% and Core MoM of +0.22%, which is 3.4% YoY for

Headline and 2.5% YoY for Core. A dovish print today may remove Sept hike expectations, boosting stocks. Pre-mkt, bond yields are down 2-3bp; there are media reports on increasing short bets (yields higher) into today’s print. USD is flat. Cmdtys are bid with Energy down / lagging; Precious over Base with Silver the standout, which has been trading as part of the AI theme rather than yields / USD like gold. In Eqys, Semis / Memory are outpacing broader markets with Mag7 trading higher, too. Software is lower, so watch to see if the +Semi / - Software dynamic returns after a significant reversal. Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives; within Cyclicals there appears to be a rotation from Fins to Industrials as the AI theme returns.

• EU/UK: Major markets are higher ex-France with markets responding positively to the AI / Semis boost and lower bond yields. Our best D1 baskets include Renewables, Semis, Gold, and Defense with Software and Luxury among the top laggards. Thematically, Momentum / ResVol are leading, Quality / Size are lagging; Cyclicals over Defensives; and Growth over Value. The APAC session saw a return of Korea to top performance as China Tech lagged into earnings, though China Property plays did well. China auto sales point to weak domestic demand and a robust export market. UKX -0.1%, SX5E +0.2%, SXXP +0.1%, DAX +0.3%. CSI +0.6%, HSI -0.8%, NKY +0.8%, ASX -0.4%, KOSPI +3.7%.

• US MACRO DATA: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. CPI and Real Avg Hourly Earnings at 8.30am ET. Federal Budget Balance at 2pm ET. • US EARNINGS: CBRS, COHR, CSCO, EAT, EQPT, ERAS, FRVO, INFQ, LQDA, REZI, WYFI • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Germany) CPI (revision) at 2am ET. (Japan) PPI at 7:50pm ET. (UK) RICS House Price Balance at 7:01pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE