JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing: Tactically Bullish; Roadmap to Q4; EM Update; Consumer Deep Dive

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

• ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS – Consumer spending, Korea, macro data, Positioning tidbits, Software, and Tech Broadening.

• ROADMAP TO Q4 – we flag the key events for US markets into quarter’s end and offer thoughts on the Bull and Bear outcomes for each event.

• EM UPDATE – Ellen & Victoria update their thoughts while still holding a Tactically Bullish view, plus their Monetization Menu

• CONSUMER DEEP DIVE – We think the Retail Sales miss overstates consumer weakness and find that cash and spending levels remain robust.

• RETAIL EARNINGS PREVIEW – Chris Horvers’ preview is summarized

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.5%, RTY -0.1%. WTI +28bps at $82.63, NatGas -333bps to $2.64, UK NatGas +154bps to £1.5356, Gold +53bps to $4,400, Silver +138bps to $65.58, 10Y @ 4.684%, and VIX @ 14.94.

• US: Futures are higher led by Tech as the week starts with Semis / Memory / AI themes bid, globally, as small-caps are in the red. It is a light macro week so the positive Tech inertia may continue into NVDA earnings next week. Bond yields are flat to down 2bp as the yield curve bull steepens; higher yields remain a risk with Fed Minutes this week and Jackson Hole next week. USD continues to its decline as cmdtys are bid up with strength across the 3 complexes. Crude prices appear to be holding in a range on increased covert flows in the MidEast and weaker Chinese demand. In metals, copper, silver, and palladium are the standouts. In Eqys, Semis, Memory, and Mag7 are all higher with Software down. Cyclicals are mixed with Indu / Mats leading Fins / Discretionary, but the cohort is lead Defensives, which are dragged by HC and Staples. Today’s macro data focus is on Regional activity indicators, housing mkt levels, and TIC flows to understand foreign Trsy holdings.

• EU/UK: Major markets are mixed with Italy / SX5E leading and Smid-caps / Spain lagging. Bond yields are lower, but the curves are mixed btwn flattening and steepening across the region. Top D1 plays include Semis, gold, and freight rate sensitives as bond proxies, Luxury, and consumer recovery lag. Thematically, Momentum and ResVol are leading with Quality and Value lagging; Cyclicals over Defensives. UKX +0.1%, SX5E +0.2%, SXXP +0.1%, DAX - 0.0%. CSI +1.6%, HSI +1.3%, NKY +0.7%, ASX -0.5%, KOSPI +2.4%.

• US MACRO DATA: Empire Mfg at 8:30am ET. NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am ET. TIC Flow at 4pm ET. • US EARNINGS: N/A • GLOBAL MACRO DATA:(Japan) IP (revision) and Tertiary Industry Index at 12:30am ET. (Canada) CPI/PPI at 8:30am ET. o [SUNDAY] – (Japan) GDP at 7:50pm ET. (China) Retail Sales, IP and Fixed Assets at 10:00pm ET.