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• MKT UPDATES – US/Iran, views on gold from JPM Commodities desk; Preview from JPM Specialist Josh Meyers on NVDA/MRVL Buyside Bar.
• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are Tactically Bullish, albeit with lower conviction, and we update the Monetization Menu.
AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS)
• SPX -0.3%, NDX -1.0%, RTY -0.8%. WTI -238bps at $84.99, NatGas -69bps to $2.75, UK NatGas +342bps to £1.6814, Gold +108bps to $4,653, Silver -17bps to $68.88, 10Y @ 4.704%, and VIX @ 15.85.
• US: Stocks closed lower but off the intraday lows. Underlying price actions were better than the index level, with 60% of the SPX names still closed higher. Today’s main themes were: (i) another sharp AI-led momentum drawdown and outperformance in Software led to another -1.7% decline in Momentum; (ii) an oil pullback (WTI -3% to $84.98), which supports resilience in banks, retail, and travel. Overall, news flow was quite minimal as investors are waiting for NVDA and Jackson Hole later this week. Elsewhere on geopolitics, the US–Canada trade fight remained a macro overhang, but
with the January 2027 deadline, it still leaves room for negotiation. Treasuries modestly flattened: 2-year was flat, while 30-year fell 4bp.
• EU/UK: Major markets were mostly mixed; Spain/UK led and France lagged. Thematically, Consumer Recovery, Ceasefire, and Most Short were among the best performing baskets, while Defense and Semis lagged. The global tech pullback and geopolitics remained the main macro drivers. The European Commission on Monday approved a further €6.1 billion ($7.12 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine to procure new defense systems, per Reuters.
CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR)
• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8.15am ET. Philly Fed Non-Mfg Activity at 8.30am ET. FHFA House Price Index at 9am ET. Richmond Fed Mfg Index at 10am ET.
• US EARNINGS TOMORROW: DKS, HET, INTU, SMTC, WSM, ZM, ZS
• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Japan) Leading Index CI (revision) at 1am ET. (Germany) GDP SA (revision) at 2am ET. (France) Consumer Confidence at 2:45am ET. (Germany) IFO Business Climate at 4am ET. (Japan) PPI Services at 7:50pm ET.
JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
• US/IRAN – Key headlines today: (i) Bessent said the US is set to announce a fresh set of economic measures against Iran, which will impact Iran’s main trading partners such as China and India, as part of the “economic D-day” campaign; in response, Iran said the country is “fully prepared” for new US economic sanctions; (ii) the Houthis said
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