Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. (9107)

Equity Research 27 July 2026 | 5:09AM JST

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. (9107.T): FY3/27 guidance raised; focus now on add’l shareholder returns & container S/D outlook; Neutral

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K-Line) announced an upward revision to its FY3/27 earnings Norihiro Miyazaki | guidance (both full-year and half-year) after the close on July 24. For the full-year Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. guidance, it revised operating profits up from ¥83 bn to ¥85 bn and recurring profits Ryohei Kurita up from ¥100 bn to ¥135 bn (our estimates are ¥97.8 bn and ¥114.5 bn, | respectively). The company noted that the upward revision was driven mainly by a Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

stronger-than-expected market environment in the dry bulk business for operating profits, and higher-than-expected revenues at container shipping JV Ocean Network Express (ONE) for recurring profits. The increase in the 1H recurring profit guidance (up ¥45 bn versus the previous guidance) exceeds the increase in the full-year guidance (up ¥35 bn). We will monitor for details in FY3/27 1Q results scheduled for release on August 4 with regard to the background to the downward revision to the 2H guidance, but we surmise that it may be based on a prolonged surge in fuel market prices in 2H, or the view that container peak-season demand has been brought forward from 2H to 1H due to US tariff policy.

While our dialogue with investors to date had anticipated an upward revision driven by stronger-than-expected container shipping market conditions, the current recurring profit guidance (¥135 bn) exceeds our estimate/Bloomberg consensus (both ¥114.5 bn), and we expect a positive share price reaction. We believe that the likelihood has increased that Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL, Buy) and Nippon Yusen KK (NYK, Neutral), which are similarly parent companies of container shipping JV ONE, will likewise announce upward revisions to their full-year guidance. Going forward, we believe the main focuses will be the possibility of additional shareholder returns based on FY3/27 operating cash flow coming in above the current medium-term plan, as well as the possibility of easing supply-demand and cash flow generation capabilities outside of container shipping, given that an acceleration in the pace of vessel deliveries is expected in the container shipping market in 2027-2028.

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Goldman Sachs Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. (9107.T)

Exhibit 1: Earnings summary Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. 26/3 1Q 26/3 2Q 26/3 3Q 26/3 4Q 27/3 1Q 27/3 2Q 27/3 3Q 27/3 4Q 3/2024 3/2025 3/2026 3/2027E 3/2028E 3/2029E 3/2027E 3/2027E

A A A A GSe GSe GSe GSe A A A GSe GSe GSe CoE (Old) CoE (New) Sales JPYmn 244,918 255,647 267,169 250,630 221,558 256,756 280,584 253,967 957,939 1,047,944 1,018,364 1,012,864 1,073,634 1,095,281 1,020,000 1,070,000 YoY % -8% -5% 0% 3% -10% 0% 5% 1% 2% 9% -3% -1% 6% 2% 0% 5% Recurring profit JPYmn 21,684 37,985 28,959 20,472 22,362 40,045 30,016 22,039 132,728 308,089 109,100 114,462 115,292 113,212 100,000 135,000 YoY % -71% -66% -71% 6% 3% 5% 4% 8% -81% 132% -65% 5% 1% -2% -8% 24% of which ex. ONE (GSe) JPYmn 17,810 24,994 33,138 17,823 24,115 26,839 30,506 19,597 90,419 107,813 93,766 101,056 102,768 106,984 85,974 135,000 Net profit JPYmn 29,947 38,685 33,970 30,384 20,815 38,444 28,342 20,583 101,989 305,384 132,986 108,184 100,759 98,258 95,000 135,000 YoY % -59% -65% -67% 47% -30% -1% -17% -32% -85% 199% -56% -19% -7% -2% -29% 2% DPS JPY/share - Share repurchases JPYmn - - - - 130,000 - - - 56,353 166,394 3 130,000 0 0 Recurring profit by segment Dry Bulk JPYmn (526) 1,483 6,663 3,286 4,760 4,700 6,780 3,450 3,593 13,286 10,906 19,690 21,000 22,370 16,500 Energy…