Key CPI print; AMAT could be a positive catalyst for semis

Trading Catalysts Key CPI print; AMAT could be a positive catalyst for semis

Key CPI print; AMAT possible positive catalyst for semis 10 August 2026

This week the market will focus on July CPI (Wed), followed by PPI (Thu), retail sales (Fri) Equity and Quant Strategy and consumer sentiment (Fri). All will be key for US rates after rates bull steepened United States following the weaker employment data last week. Our economists argue the Fed will Paula Andrea Soto, CFA >> hike by 75bp this year as it is likely to remain more focused on inflation than labor. On LatAm Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (Brazil) the equities side, watch AMAT earnings this week as a possible positive catalyst for semis after SMH/SOXX down close to 13%/17% from YTD highs. Semis continue to Thomas (T.J.) Thornton show bubble-like dynamics (though less so than recent extremes) as per our derivatives Head of Research Marketing BofAS team’s Bubble Risk Indicator (see Exhibit 9 in the latest GEVI). Economics CPI: Focus on inflation, not labor Stephen Juneau US Economist For July CPI, BofA economists forecast headline rose by 0.1% m/m (3.4% y/y, in line with BofAS consensus) and core increased by 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y), which would be the lowest Equity & Quant Strategy reading since January. Core goods inflation should remain subdued, but core services Savita Subramanian Equity & Quant Strategist likely rebounded to more trend-like levels after the June decline. Our economists expect BofAS core PCE to be firmer than core CPI at 0.24% m/m (3.3% y/y), keeping a Sep hike firmly Fundamental Equity in play. (CPI Watch) Vivek Arya Research Analyst BofAS AMAT: Broadest leverage to the upcycle Derivatives Strategy AMAT reports on Aug. 13 (Thu., aft-mkt). BofA analyst Vivek Arya is constructive into the Nitin Saksena Equity-Linked Analyst print following positive prints across other large semicaps. He likes AMAT for its BofAS broadest leverage to the upcycle and leading DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) Arjun Goyal share of approximately 20%, positioning it well for the cycle’s key bottleneck. AMAT (B- Equity-Linked Analyst BofAS 1-7, $539.14) is one of Vivek’s top picks, see details in semis note. AMAT appears in our derivatives team’s screens shown in Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5 and Exhibit 8. Nicholas Dunne Equity-Linked Analyst BofAS Benjamin Bowler Equity-Linked Analyst BofAS See Team Page for List of Analysts

Exhibit 1: Key near-term catalysts SPX implied move Imp. Date move Potential catalysts 8/10 Mon 0.52% 8/11 Tue 0.47% 8/12 Wed 0.58% CPI 8/13 Thu 0.52% 8/14 Fri 0.54% AMAT Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg. For a list of open trade recommendations and trade recommendat Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are ions closed in the last 12 months, please see the latest not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial Global Equity Volatility Insights. resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. List of acronyms at the end of this report. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 13. Analyst Certification on page 9. Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 9.

US Economics Aditya Bhave Stephen Juneau BofAS BofAS

Warsh's reticence is counterproductive Warsh's (non)communication strategy poses key challenges. No forward guidance: the market signal will still incorporate Fed expectations. No reaction function: the resulting uncertainty works like a tax on the economy. Warsh also risks ceding the…