Lottomatica Group (LTMC)

Equity Research 31 July 2026 | 3:44PM BST

Lottomatica Group (LTMC.MI) Minor estimate changes post 2Q26; remain Buy

LTMC.MI 12m Price Target: €31.00 Price: €23.68 Upside: 30.9% BUY Ben Andrews, CFA We make minor estimate changes for Lottomatica post the 2Q26 | Goldman Sachs International results. Lottomatica posted a solid 2Q26 print, with EBITDA beating Poppy Boyd-Taylor expectations by a low-single-digit %, driven mainly by Online NGR | Goldman Sachs International growth outperformance (growing faster than GGR) and a strong 2Q26 Online EBITDA margin of 58.3%. Leo Mose | Goldman Sachs International Considering these trends, our overall EBITDA expectations are broadly unchanged. Within Online, we slightly increase our Key Data _____________________________________ forecasts for the conversion of GGR into NGR, and for EBITDA Market cap: €5.6bn / $6.5bn Enterprise value: €7.9bn / $9.1bn margins, though do not fully extrapolate the stronger trends seen in 3m ADTV: €20.4mn / $23.6mn Italy 2Q26; these changes are mostly offset by slightly lowering our Europe Travel and Leisure underlying Online GGR growth forecasts on the basis of recent M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes industry data trends — see more here. For FY26E, we expect Group GS Forecast __________________________________ EBITDA of €961mn, consistent with company guidance after 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

adjusting for YTD payouts (guidance: Group EBITDA at the top end Revenue (€ mn) New Revenue (€ mn) Old 2,255.3 2,255.3 2,401.3 2,404.7 2,585.5 2,596.4 2,738.3 2,750.9 of €940-980mn on normalised payouts). Our 12m target price is EBIT (€ mn) EPS (€) New unchanged at €31.0, and we remain Buy rated. EPS (€) Old P/E (X) Dividend yield (%) 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.3 CROCI (%) Estimate changes N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.4

6/26 12/26E 6/27E 12/27E EPS (€) See below a summary of our estimate changes. GS Factor Profile ______________________________ Growth

Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

LTMC.MI relative to Europe Coverage LTMC.MI relative to Europe Travel and Leisure

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.

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Goldman Sachs Lottomatica Group (LTMC.MI)

Lottomatica Group (LTMC.MI) Balance Sheet (€ mn) _______________________________________ BUY Rating since Jun 8, 2023 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents Accounts receivable Inventory 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets /25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total current assets ,020.7 EV/sales (X) 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.5 Net PP&E EV/EBITDAR (X) 8.6 8.1 6.9 5.8 Net intangibles 2,826.3 2,789.7 2,721.0 2,651.0 EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) 8.8 8.3 7.1 5.9 Total investments EV/EBIT (X) Other long-term assets P/E (X) Total assets 3,502.9 3,614.8 3,523.8 3,863.9 Dividend yield (%) 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.3 Accounts payable EV/GCI (X) 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 Short-term debt -- -- -- -- CROCI (%) Short-term lease liabilities -- -- -- -- ROIC (%) Other current liabilities ROA (%) Total current liabilities Days inventory outst, sales 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Long-term debt 2,000.0 2,365.0 2,365.0 2,365.0 Asset turnover (X) Long-term lease liabilities Capex/D&A (%) Other long-term liabilities Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) ,352.6 337.6 Total long-term liabilities 2,299.4 2,685.6 2,704.3 2,709.7 EBIT interest cover (X) 5.3 5.7 6.4 7.1 Total liabilities 3,125.4 3,343.9 3,370.8 3,382.4 FCF cover of dividends (X) 2.0 3.0 3.6 3.6 Preferred shares -- -- -- -- Total common equity Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________ Minority interest /25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total liabilities & equity 3,502.9 3,614.8 3,523.8 3,863.9…